Melbourne, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

529
FXUS62 KMLB 221032
AFDMLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
632 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
- A High Risk of life-threatening rip currents continues early
  this week with long period swells from Hurricane Gabrielle.
- Increased shower and storm chances Today and Tuesday as deeper
  moisture arrives over central Florida.
- Above normal high temperatures for the interior through Friday
  reaching into the lower 90s each afternoon.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Today...Surface high pressure near the Mid Atlc and northeast will
keep light onshore flow across east central FL today. A mid level
s/w trough across the n central Gulf will move slowly eastward as
deeper moisture (PWATs 2.0-2.2 inches) from S FL begins to creep
northward toward central FL through late afternoon. Highest
afternoon coverage is expected along and south of a Melbourne to
Kissimmee line with lower coverage expected across northern Lake and
Volusia county where lower PWAT air will linger. Will have a tight
gradient in rain chances 20-30 percent north of Sanford to 40-50
percent central and 60-70 percent for Okeechobee and the Treasure
Coast. The main threats with storms this afternoon into early
evening will be strong wind gusts to 40 mph, occasional to frequent
lightning strikes and heavy downpours. With the deeper moisture
locally heavy rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches will be possible with
slow moving showers and storms this afternoon and evening. Highs
will reach the upper 80s coast to lower 90s from Orlando
westward.
A long period swell from distant TC Gabrielle has reached the
Florida east coast early this morning. This will keep a high risk of
life-threatening rip currents at area beaches. Take this into
account if heading to the coast early this week, as entering the
water will be highly discouraged! The High Rip Current Risk will
continue into Tuesday as long period east swells will continue
the risk for strong rip currents.
Tonight...The mid level s/w will approach the NE Gulf overnight with
disturbances aloft and upper level W/SW flow bringing some debris
rain from w central fl storms back our way. Any pockets of
instability and impulses aloft may allow for some isolated
showers/storms into late evening and have expanded a low chance
for convection in agreement with 00Z href models. Activity should
tend to push toward the Atlc overnight but will continue a low
chance for a shower or storm near the Atlc coast. Lows will be in
the mid 70s inland and upper 70s coast.
Tuesday...Deep moisture will continue across central FL on Tue with
PWATs range from 2.0 north to 2.1-2.3 south. Aloft, a mid level
trough across the ern Gulf should provide additional across the srn
peninsula and when combined with daytime heating should see
scattered showers and storms north to numerous showers/storms for
the srn interior Tue afternoon. A few stronger storms may develop
with lightning, gusty winds and localized heavy rainfall amounts to
1-3 inches the main convective hazards late in the afternoon and
early evening. The warmest high temps will continue from Orlando
westward in the lower 90s. A High Risk for rip currents will
continue at the Atlantic beaches.
Wed-Fri...Model guidance indicates some weak ridging aloft and some
lowering of the deeper moisture as we head past mid week, especially
for northern and coastal areas. This should allow for a decrease in
afternoon convective coverage but will still see scattered
afternoon showers and storms each day, most numerous across
southern interior sections.
A warming trend is also anticipated mid to late week, as more sun
and lesser overall cloud cover supports afternoon temperatures
mostly in the low 90s, but some mid 90s over the interior are
possible. Peak heat indices Wednesday-Friday will reach 98-103
degrees, so it is something to keep in mind for any outdoor work or
activities.
Friday Night-Monday...A longwave trough will move toward the
southeast states late this week with some divergence in model
solutions whether the trough will be quicker and more progressive or
slow down as a closed low cuts off across Southeast. The timing of
the frontal moisture could be as early as Friday night with the
more progressive solutions or arrive during the day on Saturday.
Expect a period of unsettled weather with higher shower/storm
chances for Saturday. The evolution of a closed low near the area
late this weekend should gradually lower rain chances by Sunday as
some drier air is wrapped in toward northern sections of the area
associated with the closed low. For rain chances...Have trended
toward a blend of the NBM and operational global and ensemble
models by late in the weekend with rain chances mainly forecast in
40-50 percent range at this time.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
High pressure near the Mid Altc early this week and offshore the
Carolinas and Mid Atlc mid week will keep generally E-SE winds
across the waters through Thu. Swells from distant Hurricane
Gabrielle will continue into tonight and Tuesday and reach 6 ft
offshore the Volusia and Brevard coast this evening into Tue.
Additionally, longer periods of 11-12 sec with these swells will
lead to hazardous boating conditions at inlets during the outgoing
tide through early week. Swells will decrease to 3-5 ft Wed and 2-3
ft by Thu afternoon into Friday.
Moisture builds back northward across the area through early this
week, with coverage of showers and storms increasing, becoming
scattered to numerous across the waters. Deeper moisture then shifts
eastward into mid to late week with shower and storm coverage closer
to normal.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 632 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Generally VFR conds prevail, though could see some OCNL MVFR
along the coast. Will monitor for ISOLD showers across the
Treasure Coast terminals this morning. Light winds become NE/ENE
and increase to 7-12 kts into this afternoon. An increase in
moisture from the south will promote higher diurnal PoPs than
recent days: possibly SCT-NMRS coverage, highest chances across
the Treasure Coast/Okeechobee County. Perhaps only ISOLD chances
for KDAB/KLEE. Steering flow weak so expect some erratic cell
movement. Keep VCSH/VCTS by midday over the Treasure Coast
terminals and extend up to KMCO after around 22/19Z. Will reassess
additional TEMPOs as timing/confidence increases.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  74  87  73 /  20  10  40  10
MCO  92  75  92  75 /  40  20  60  10
MLB  87  76  88  75 /  50  30  50  20
VRB  88  74  89  74 /  60  30  50  20
LEE  91  74  91  74 /  20  20  40  10
SFB  90  74  91  74 /  30  20  50  10
ORL  91  75  91  75 /  30  20  60  10
FPR  88  74  89  73 /  60  30  50  20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Volkmer
AVIATION...Sedlock

NWS MLB Office Area Forecast Discussion