Mechanicsville, Maryland Weather Forecast Discussion

013
FXUS61 KLWX 290101
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
901 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds south from eastern Canada through much of the
week. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Imelda is expected to approach
the Southeast coast early this week then move out to sea through
mid week. A strong cold front will track across the area by the
middle of this week bringing cooler and drier weather.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will remain in place to our north tonight.
Meanwhile, southerly flow ahead of weak troughing to our west
will transport high clouds northward into the region out ahead
of Tropical Storm Imelda, which is now located in the vicinity
of the Bahamas. Winds have gone calm in most locations this
evening, and temperatures have rapidly dropped back into the 60s
and lower 70s. High clouds will continue to thicken overnight,
but no precipitation is expected. Temperatures will drop back to
lows in the lower to middle 60s to the east of the Blue Ridge,
and upper 50s to the west of the Blue Ridge. Patchy fog may be
possible later tonight, especially to the west of the Blue
Ridge. However, the thickening high clouds may act as a limiting
factor for fog formation.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The surface high pressure shifts offshore to start the week, causing
winds locally to become easterly. It is important to note that this
high will protect our region from any direct impacts associated with
Tropical Storm Imelda as that system approaches the Southeast
coast.
A broad upper trough along the Eastern Seaboard cuts off as a
disorganized low over the Southeast states Monday into Tuesday. The
interaction of the cutoff low and Tropical Storm Imelda will
push some moisture up into our area. This could result in a few
showers for areas those and south of I-66 Monday evening through
Tuesday morning, though the best chance for showers looks to be
from Charlottesville to Fredericksburg south.
Cloudy skies to start the week with temps in the upper 70s to around
80F Monday. Mild conditions Monday night as temps settle in the low
to mid 60s. A stronger Canadian high starts to build in from the
north on Tuesday. This brings slightly cooler temps in the mid to
upper 70s and an uptick of northerly winds. Cooler air Tuesday night
drops lows to the 50s for most of the area, with upper 40s in parts
of the Alleghenies.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will build into the region and remain strong Wednesday
through Saturday. Temperatures will be seasonable Wednesday, then
again on Saturday, while in between on Thursday and Friday a Fall-
chill with temperatures below average will be felt. Winds will be
northeast Wednesday and Thursday with high pressure building into
the region. Winds becoming southeast Friday and then southwest
Saturday with light magnitudes.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the most part through
Tuesday night as high pressure maintains control. Areas of fog are
possible at most terminals tonight, and at CHO/MRB for Tuesday
night. A few showers could approach CHO from Monday afternoon
to Tuesday morning.
VFR conditions Wednesday through Thursday night. Winds northeast 10
knots Wednesday, then 5 to 10 knots at night. Winds remaining
northeast 5 to 10 knots Thursday and Thursday night.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure over the region will maintain favorable marine
conditions through Monday evening. A second, stronger Canadian high
pressure starts to build into the area on Tuesday. The increasing
pressure gradient on the southern side of the high will cause
northeast to north winds to increase Monday night into Tuesday. SCA
conditions are possible in the middle Chesapeake Bay Tuesday
afternoon, then spreading north to most of the waters Tuesday night.
SCA conditions could continue Wednesday through Thursday night.
Winds northeast gusting around 10 to 20 knots Wednesday and
Wednesday night, then northeast around 10 to 15 knots Thursday
and Thursday night.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KRR
NEAR TERM...KJP
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...KLW/KRR
MARINE...KLW/KRR

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion