Martins Ferry, Ohio Weather Forecast Discussion

827
FXUS61 KPBZ 231932
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
332 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance will cross the region and will bring
the chance of light rain today into tonight. Heavier rain
chances are expected tomorrow into early Thursday. A dry period
is anticipated over the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Scattered to isolated rain chances through this evening
- Dense fog potential after midnight
---------------------------------------------------------------
Rain showers are likely to persist through the late evening as
a trough passes over the Ohio River Valley. While thunderstorms
cannot be ruled out, the overall risk remains low due to weak
instability and weak forcing.
High-resolution models also indicate that dense fog may develop
after midnight, supported by ample boundary layer moisture from
earlier convection and light winds. If widespread low-visibility
conditions develop, a Dense Fog Advisory may need to issued.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
-  Rain and thunderstorm chances increase after 9am tomorrow and
   continue through Thursday evening
-  The passage of a warm front may create a few strong to severe
   thunderstorms mid-day Wednesday
-  Heavy rainfall may prompt an isolated flood threat south of
   Pittsburgh Thursday morning
----------------------------------------------------------------
Morning fog is expected to dissipate between 8am and 11am
Wednesday as surface heating increases.
A disturbance currently moving across Missouri will track east
overnight and reach the region by mid-morning Wednesday.
Depending on the evolution of the low-level shear and the exact
position of the surface low, conditions could briefly support
strong to severe thunderstorms along an advancing warm front. At
present, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has outlined a
"Marginal" risk, reflecting low confidence due to model
inconsistency but acknowledging the potential for higher-impact
weather. In a worse-case scenario, damaging wind gusts and
isolated tornadoes could develop between the time period of 11am
to 5pm.
Rain chances will persist into early Thursday under deep
southwest flow as the trough stalls over the Great Lakes.
Strengthening jet dynamics across West Virginia and western
Pennsylvania may enhance rainfall rates, leading to periods of
heavy rain Thursday morning. Isolated areas could receive 1-2
inches of rain in 6 hours. Given this potential, the Weather
Prediction Center (WPC) has placed portions of region under a
"Slight" risk for flooding.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Light showers expected Friday
- A building ridge will likely support warm and drier conditions
  over the weekend
------------------------------------------------------------------
Behind the departing trough and cold front, the risk for heavy
rainfall will diminish as drier mid and upper-level air moves
in. A few isolated showers may develop early Friday, mainly
across the higher terrain due to lingering low-level moisture
and upsloping as winds shift from the northwest.
Looking ahead, ensemble guidance consistently indicates a ridge
building over the region Sunday into Monday. This setup will
likely bring drier conditions along with temperatures trending
warmer than average.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A weak 700mb shortwave will maintain a region of lift over a
moist environment to produce periods of scattered to numerous
rain showers through the evening. Excessive cloud cover may
limit thunderstorm potential between 18z-22z while favoring
locations S/E of KPIT. Any shower/thunderstorm that contains
heavier rain could briefly lower visibility further than
forecasted as well as cause temporary gusts to 35kts. There is
high confidence in shortwave ridging creating a lull in
convective activity after 02z tonight. The next shortwave and
a NE lifting surface warm front is expected aft 12z Wednesday,
aiding another round of convection through the day Wednesday
where impacts are similar to those listed above.
The more difficult aspect to discern is area ceiling trends
given abundant moisture across the region but high variability
in timing of daytime improvements and cloud coverage overnight.
In general, the expectation is for gradual improvements from
MVFR/IFR to VFR/localized MVFR through 00z amid diurnal heating
and continued areal lift. Thereafter, hi-res modeling seems to
diverge based on the degree of cloud clearing overnight. More
rapid clearing of various decks likely lends to greater fog
(less than 1/2 mile) and LIFR stratus development for most
terminals; lingering clouds combined with moisture convergence
may cause rapid east to west spread of an IFR to locally LIFR
stratus deck that limits fog production.
.OUTLOOK....
The next shortwave will traverse the upper Ohio River Valley
region starting Wednesday morning, spreading showers and
isolated thunderstorms NE. It will likely maintain at least MVFR
cigs (50-60% probability) through the day for most sites as it
offsets typical improvements from increased daytime lift/mixing.
Similar diurnal trends with rounds of rain can be expected for
Thursday into Friday morning before the upper trough axis
finally shifts east of the region. There is then increased
confidence in a drier weekend period with longer intervals of
VFR conditions.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hefferan
NEAR TERM...Hefferan
SHORT TERM...Hefferan
LONG TERM...Hefferan
AVIATION...Frazier

NWS PBZ Office Area Forecast Discussion