265 FXUS63 KGID 301734 AFDGIDArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1234 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s today with southerly winds gusting 20-30mph.
- Above normal temperatures and breezy afternoon winds continue through Saturday.
- Precipitation chances return Saturday night (15-30%) as a cold front moves into the area.
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.DISCUSSION... Issued at 348 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Today and Wednesday...
Temperatures this morning are currently sitting in the 60s with southerly winds and mostly cloudy skies. A passing shortwave trough is moving through southwesterly flow aloft. Widespread cloud coverage from this passing shortwave trough will help keep temperatures slightly cooler than previous days, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Lift from the aforementioned shortwave trough will also result in scattered radar returns throughout much of the day. There is a fair amount of dry air near the surface which should prevent any of the rain from reaching the ground. Southerly winds will be breezy again this afternoon, strongest west of Highway 281 gusting 20-30mph.
Another passing shortwave trough moves into the Plains Tuesday night- Wednesday morning. Lift from this system aided by the LLJ will support the development of scattered showers early Wednesday morning. There remains some uncertainty on how much precipitation develops and the impacts of dry air. Because of this, the forecast was kept dry (PoPs < 15%) but may be added later if confidence increases. If rain were to occur, any accumulations would be very light (less than 0.05"). Any showers will come to an end by the mid- morning hours as the LLJ weakens/veers. Skies will clear as temperatures climb into the mid 80s during the afternoon.
Thursday and Friday...
Southwesterly flow-weak riding builds over the area on Thursday and Friday. Due to this, well above normal temperatures are expected across the area. Highs will soar into the mid 80s-low 90s, 10-15 degrees above their climatological normals. Mostly sunny/sunny skies are expected. Breezy winds are expected Friday afternoon, gusting 20- 30mph.
This Weekend Onwards...
Another warm breezy day is expected during the day on Saturday ahead of an approaching longwave trough with highs in the 80s-low 90s. There remains some disagreement within global model guidance as to the timing, strength and position of this trough. Still, the GFS and ECMWF support a cold front pushing it`s way into the area sometime Saturday night-Sunday. Scattered thunderstorm development along the front brings the next chance for precipitation to the area but models disagree on how widespread rain will be across the area.
Cooler weather is expected behind the cold frontal passage on Monday, with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s.
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.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Brief wind shear may occur around 12z but confidence is not high enough to include at this time. Winds will be out of the south to southeast with gusty winds up to around 25 knots this afternoon.
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.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None.
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DISCUSSION...Davis AVIATION...Schuldt
NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion