Markleeville California Weather Forecast Discussion

995
FXUS65 KREV 090910
AFDREV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
210 AM PDT Thu Oct 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Winds continue to increase from the southwest through Friday.
* A storm system arrives Friday into Saturday, bringing cooler
  temperatures and low chances for light rain and light mountain
  snow through Saturday.
* Another storm arrives early next week keeping the cold
  temperatures, but with better chances of rain and mountain
  snow.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Fall-like weather is coming back this weekend. Temperatures slowly
cool down through tomorrow, before a big drop happens on Saturday
behind the cold front associated to the upper level trough that
is approaching the region. Talking about that approach, winds
keep increasing through Friday. Gusts of 25-40 mph in the valleys,
and 60-80 mph along the Sierra crest are expected on Friday
afternoon. Ensemble data hasn`t changed much since yesterday, and
NBM guidance is still looking at a 40-80% chance of exceeding 35
mph gusts over western NV and eastern CA. These values are close
to Wind Advisory criteria. So, if the trend persists we may issue
one for western NV later today or tonight for Friday. Lake Wind
Advisories are in effect for both Tahoe and Pyramid Lake on
Friday afternoon.
The precipitation associated to this system has been the hardest
part of the forecast as it has fluctuated significantly from
initial estimates between Friday and Saturday. The initial numbers
have come down a lot, along with the timing of the rain/snow.
Much of the rain is expected late on Friday evening into Saturday
morning for NE CA and the northern Sierra. Western NV may not see
much beyond low clouds and some brief light rain showers through
Saturday afternoon. If there is any snow it will be confined
generally above 7000 ft in the northern Sierra and NE CA. Rain and
snow amounts are below 0.1 and 0.3 inches, respectively.
Sunday to Monday morning will be the transition period between the
last cold front and the next one. However, models on Sunday
morning indicate the coldest morning of the season so far. Many
western NV and NE CA valleys are either flirting with freezing
temps, or simply below freezing, except for Mineral/ S. Lyon
County. A freeze watch is very likely for most of western NV for
Sunday morning. Portions of the Carson Valley may freeze as early
as Saturday, although there was a short freeze yesterday morning.
The next low pressure system still has plenty of uncertainty with
its timing and position as it approaches the Great Basin from the
PacNW. However, we continue to expect cool temperatures to
prevail through much of next week. Breezy winds with the initial
approach of the system on Monday, followed by lighter winds the
rest of the week. Lastly, better chances for valley rain, and
mountain snow above 6-7 kft. Accumulations are still hard to tell
as we need a better agreement on the position of the low. At least
it is looking wetter than the system of this weekend.
-HC
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions continue through Friday with mostly clear skies.
Afternoon wind gusts continue to increase through Friday with
gusts up to 30 kts today, and up to 35 kts Friday. However, KMMH
will see gusts up to 35 kts both days. LLWS and turbulence is
expected for all terminals through Friday.
-HC
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Lake Wind Advisory from 2 PM to 8 PM PDT Friday NVZ002-004.
CA...Lake Wind Advisory from 2 PM to 8 PM PDT Friday CAZ072.
&&
$$

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