Marion Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

342
FXUS63 KICT 071718
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1218 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and storms continue across portions of
  central and south-central KS this morning; a stray severe
  storm is possible with large hail the main concern
- Below normal temperatures today and Wednesday; warming trend
  ensues Thursday through the weekend
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 412 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025
As of 4 AM Tuesday morning, broad midlevel WAA combined with upper
divergence with the right entrance region of 50 kt 500mb jet
continues to produce widely scattered storms across central and
south-central KS. Meager, yet sufficient, midlevel lapse rates up to
7 C/km have resulted a couple of stronger updrafts, including an
elevated supercell across northeast Kingman County (golfball size
hail produced). This lapse rate plume will remain in place through
the morning hours, therefore additional strong/severe storms remain
possible, especially across south-central KS. Hail up to golf ball
size is the main concern. As the midlevel WAA weakens by midday, the
bulk of shower and storm activity will diminish. Sunny skies will
return to portions of central and south-central KS later this
afternoon. Despite the sunshine, temperatures will top out in the
60s to near 70.
Surface ridging will settle into the area by Wednesday with
seasonable temperatures and light winds. Midlevel ridging will build
across the central/southern Plains for the second half of the week
and upcoming weekend, which will likely result in a warming
trend with temperatures nearing 80 degrees once again. Another
cold front and shot of colder air is appearing possible early
next week, stay tuned!
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025
MVFR to IFR cigs continue to gradually slide southward across
portions of southern and eastern Kansas early this afternoon
while much of central Kansas has resumed VFR conditions.
Ceilings should continue to gradually improve as low clouds move
southward and slowly dissipate this afternoon and evening. Exact
timing for when all sites will see VFR conditions resume is a
bit difficult to pin down at this time, but in general, around
21-00Z should be the timeframe for the resumption of VFR
conditions across the area. Additionally, northerly winds around
5 to 15 knots this afternoon will weaken and then turn to
southeasterly or southerly by Wednesday morning.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...JC

NWS ICT Office Area Forecast Discussion