Manila, California Weather Forecast Discussion

065
FXUS66 KEKA 062112
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
212 PM PDT Mon Oct 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Above normal temperatures continue through Tuesday. The
pattern begins to change Wednesday with cooling temperatures from an
approaching trough. Rain chances increase late week and particularly
Friday. Overnight lows will also trend cooler.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Offshore flow has contributed to much above normal
temperatures Monday, with 70s to low 80s along the coast. Lighter
offshore will develop tonight with weakening of the thermal trough,
but some of the interior ridges will be breezy. Another mostly
cloudless, full sunshine day forecast Tuesday. Daytime highs will
tick up slightly higher for the interior on Tuesday, while the coast
looks to be slighlty less warm than today with the weaker thermal
trough. A weak shortwave will push into into Central California,
with no impacts other than perhaps some increased cloudcover over
Lake County late Wednesday.
A stronger NE Pacific trough will take shape late wednesday, with
evolution into a closed low Thursday as it drifts south toward N CA.
Cold 500 mb temperatures of -25C and modest surface CAPE upwards of
250 J/kg with the low will bring the chances for thunderstorms and
higher rainfall rates. With the convective nature of this low, exact
rainfall over the entire forecast area. The highest chances are over
the King Range, the ridges of Humboldt and most of Del Norte County.
NBM is showing moderate confidence for general rainfall totals
over 1 inch in 24 hours (40-60%). Chances for 72 hour rainfall
over 2 inches is strong, around 70%. Where these higher amounts
are concentrated is still uncertain given the setup. What is also
looking interesting is the modest surface cape and shear profiles
the sounding are revealing, and with a strengthened 250 and 500 mb
jet. There are hints of a veering wind profile over the ocean
Friday, and this would point to a waterspout threat. There may be
convective activity that pushes somewhat inland, and soundings
currently support this scenario. A slight jog north or south of
the low would change this forecast, so higher confidence in
details will come into focus in the coming days. JJW
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)...Clear skies with light and variable winds
below 10kt is expected through the forecast period at all forecast
aerodromes. Low possibility (20% chance) for shallow mist and haze
at coastal terminals this evening nearby the ocean. Light easterly
breezes by late evening will significantly reduce that potential
through the night. Visible satellite imagery this morning showed
areas of fog and low clouds in the interior valleys, specifically in
southern Humboldt and northern Mendocino Counties. These pockets of
LIFR burned off quickly. The gradual drying over the last 3 days
will most likely not yield more fog and low clouds in these
valleys.
&&
.MARINE...Steep wind waves have eased below criteria this afternoon.
Light and variable winds to 10 kt or less are forecast to continue
this afternoon through tonight. Northerly winds will begin to trend
stronger Tuesday night through Wednesday. NBM probability for gusts
over 30kt increases to 40-50% initially over the outer waters
Tuesday night. These 30 kt gusts will likely (80% chance) expand
into portions of the inner waters on Wed. Primary area for these
stronger corridors of winds inside 10NM will most likely be in the
lee of Cape Mendocino (40-60% chance) and perhaps around Pt St
George (20% chance) during the afternoon and evening. High
resolution models may end up coming in hotter and heavier with
northerly winds and a few localized gale gusts to 35 kt are
possible. Steep northerly wind waves will also rebuild to 6 to 8 ft
(significant wave heights) by Wed and seas will once again become
hazardous to small craft.
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
None.
&&
$$
NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.
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https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

NWS EKA Office Area Forecast Discussion