Mancos, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

873
FXUS65 KGJT 030918
AFDGJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
318 AM MDT Fri Oct 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Breezy southwesterly winds with gusts of 30-40 mph and
  temperatures 10-15 degrees continue today.
- Showers and storms associated with the approaching low
  pressure begin over the higher terrain today, and become
  widespread by tomorrow morning. Light snow is possible above
  9k feet.
- Temperatures drop below normal tomorrow and Sunday, then
  rebound to near normal values Monday as warmer and more
  seasonable conditions return.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 314 AM MDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Current upper level analysis indicates ridging building into the
center of the country now, with the ridge axis to our east
stretching from northern Mexico into Iowa and Minnesota. Despite now
being on the fringe of this ridge, it continues to dominate the
sensible weather over eastern Utah and western Colorado. Skies are
mostly clear and temperatures remain mild. At the same time, current
analysis shows the much anticipated trough has moved onshore across
northern California and into the Pacific Northwest. A closed low is
expected to develop in the base of this trough as it swings inland
across Nevada this afternoon. Ahead of the trough, the pressure
gradient will tighten up significantly, enhancing already strong
southwesterly flow. Widespread gusts of 30-40 mph likely this
afternoon, with locally higher values possible. This southwesterly
flow will continue to advect warm and increasingly moist air into
the region today, with highs expected to top out 10-15 degrees above
normal.
Clouds will be on the increase through the morning, with showers and
thunderstorms breaking out over the higher terrain south of I-70
late this afternoon. Precipitation fills in through this evening and
into the overnight, becoming widespread by tomorrow morning. For
most locations this precipitation will fall as rain, but elevations
above 9-10k feet could see a bit of snow by tomorrow evening.
Accumulations will be minimal, with an inch or two at the highest
elevations. Winds will remain elevated through tomorrow afternoon as
the region remains under the tight pressure gradient ahead of the
surface cold front. With clouds and precipitation expected tonight,
lows will run quite mild, around 10 degrees above early October
climatology. However, temperatures won`t rebound much tomorrow,
between the widespread precipitation and the cold front swinging
through in the afternoon. Highs tomorrow will be 10-15 degrees below
those expected today, and 3-5 degrees below normal for this time of
year.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 314 AM MDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Precipitation is expected to quickly taper off Saturday night as the
trough lifts into the Plains. Behind the trough, a much drier
airmass moves in, with mostly clear skies dominating by Sunday
morning. Temperatures will remain below normal Sunday, before
rebounding to near normal values for Monday onward. Some moisture
lingers across areas north of I-70 through Tuesday, keeping a slight
chance of showers or thunderstorms over the higher terrain.
Models continue to struggle with the very blocky pattern that sets
up early next week. They have reached a consensus on a closed low
developing to our west and low amplitude ridging build overhead.
There is some indication of moisture sneaking in from the southeast
by midweek, which would bring a return of mountain showers and
thunderstorms for the San Juans and along the Divide. Stay tuned for
updates as the forecast irons itself out over the coming days.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1137 PM MDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Clear skies will dominate through 12z, after which high and
midlevel clouds will begin filtering in from southwest to
northeast. Winds will be terrain driven through roughly 18z,
although they will be elevated, with sustained winds around 10
knots at most locations. Winds become stronger and southwesterly
during the afternoon, with gusts of 20-30 knots possible.
Showers and thunderstorms will begin developing over the higher
terrain around 00z tomorrow afternoon, filling in through the
evening. VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours, but
periods of MVFR to IFR conditions will be possible late tomorrow
afternoon and evening if showers move directly over a terminal.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BGB
LONG TERM...BGB
AVIATION...TGJT

NWS GJT Office Area Forecast Discussion