Madison, Wisconsin Weather Forecast Discussion

069
FXUS63 KMKX 301418
AFDMKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
918 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Slightly cooler today & Wednesday, with temperatures climbing
  well above normal for Thursday through the weekend.
- Isolated to scattered shower & thunderstorm chances (~20-30%)
  return Sunday night through Monday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued 920 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
No major updates as low level fog has cleared out early this
morning leaving largely quiet conditions the rest of the day.
Some higher clouds will be expected for the majority of the day
today.
Kuroski
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued 324 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Today through Wednesday night:
Just some patchy ground fog is expected this morning mainly in
low lying areas. Otherwise, high pressure of 1034 MB will track
from nrn Ontario to Quebec today through Wednesday night, while
the upper ridge from WI to wrn Ontario today rolls over into
the Lower Great Lakes. This will enhance ely winds and weak
cold advection with high temps ranging from lower 70s at the
lake and lower 80s over south central WI for today, then a bit
cooler for Wednesday. There should be just enough ely flow and
drier air to prevent fog formation for tonight and Wed nt.
Gehring
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued 324 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Thursday through Monday:
Strong surface high pressure continues southeastward into the
northeastern CONUS on Thursday, continuing south towards the Mid
Atlantic region and weakening into this weekend. This will allow
easterly surface flow to gradually veer south through the latter
half of this week, with warm advection boosting high temperatures
back up. Dry weather continues through the rest of the work
week, with decreasing high-altitude clouds on Thursday and
continued mostly clear skies into Friday expected. Ensemble
temperature plots show the heat peaking late this week
(specifically Friday), with inland daytime highs in the mid to
upper 80s, with only a slight cooling effect from the lake
breeze (far eastern WI), abated by the synoptic southwesterly
breeze.
Late in the weekend and early next week marks our next
mentionable chance for precipitation (20-30% chances) as the
upper level ridge axis finally begins to shift east of our
region and broad positively-tilted troughing begins to take
hold to our west. At the surface a cold front approaches.
Sheppard
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued 920 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Mostly light east to northeast winds today with mostly high
clouds expected in the forecast with no risk for low CIGS in the
short term. There will be a chance for pockets of low VSBYs with
ground fog overnight but otherwise VFR conditions are expected
through the TAF period.
Kuroski
&&
.MARINE...
Issued 324 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Light and variable winds early this morning will become light
northeast winds later this morning. A high pressure area of 30.4
inches will move from northern Ontario to Quebec today into
Wednesday. This will allow east-northeast winds to become
established over Lake Michigan becoming east-southeast winds on
Wednesday. The high will advance into the northeastern United
States through the end of the week, allowing winds to turn out of
the south Thursday through Friday. Broad low pressure will form
over the northern Great Plains Saturday, and will gradually
attempt to work toward the upper Mississippi River Valley by the
end of next weekend. Chances for isolated showers and
thunderstorms return to the forecast Saturday evening through
Monday.
Waves may briefly approach Small Craft Advisory thresholds late
tonight.
Gehring
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&
$$
Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee
Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee

NWS MKX Office Area Forecast Discussion