Mabank Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

135
FXUS64 KFWD 091831
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
131 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025
...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- An elevated grass fire threat will be present for areas near
  and west of I-35 on Sunday.
- Warm and rain-free weather will continue into next week with
  temperatures 5 to 15 degrees above normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today through Friday Afternoon/
The rest of this week will remain warm and dry as upper-level
ridging retains dominion over North and Central Texas` weather
pattern. A shortwave disturbance rounding the eastern periphery
of the ridge into the Deep South is currently shunting a backdoor
front south and westward towards East Texas, mainly characterized
by lower dewpoints and east-northeast winds. This front will
quietly slide further into our area the rest of the day. With
only light winds and no real temperature drop behind the boundary,
expect afternoon highs to peak in the mid 80s to low 90s under
mostly sunny skies. The front will eventually stall across North
and Central Texas tomorrow before becoming more diffuse over the
weekend. Tomorrow afternoon will pretty much be a wash, rinse,
and repeat of today as high temperatures once again peak in the
mid 80s and low 90s.
Prater
&&
.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Thursday Friday Onward/
While upper-level ridging keeps things warm and dry this weekend,
a lee-side surface low will form to our northwest, which will
tighten the surface pressure gradient and increase wind speeds.
With lower humidity both Saturday and Sunday afternoons,
increasingly dried fuels, and continued abnormally warm
temperatures, these increased wind speeds will allow for an
increased concern for fire weather for areas mainly near and west
of I-35. This is particularly true for Sunday afternoon when wind
speeds reach 10-15 mph with gusts up to 20-25 mph.
A digging shortwave well to our northwest will eject from the
main trough located over the western CONUS early in the week,
sending a cold front south. Unfortunately, this front will likely
stall before it makes it to our area, with any accompanying rain
chances remaining to our north. Otherwise ridging will remain
planted across the Southern Plains throughout next week, keeping
the warm and dry conditions in place.
Prater
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/
While oscillating between NE to SE (050-130), winds will largely
remain in an easterly direction with speeds around 8 kts or less
with VFR prevailing. Towards the end of the period winds may
shift a bit more towards the SE, but speeds will remain around 6
kts or less. By tomorrow afternoon, winds are expected to return
to a more E/ENE direction.
Prater
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    87  64  87  64  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                88  62  88  60  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               83  57  83  58  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              86  58  86  58  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            86  58  85  59  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              88  64  88  65  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             86  58  86  58  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           89  62  88  61  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              90  61  88  58  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       90  60  90  58  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion