Los Fresnos, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

528
FXUS64 KBRO 191138 AAB
AFDBRO
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
638 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
...New AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1005 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Daily rain chances are expected to continue into next week as
persistent tropical moisture remains in place across Deep South
Texas. A series of upper level disturbances and the daily
afternoon sea breeze will likely provide the forcing necessary to
support isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
periodically through the period.
Short term HiRes guidance depicts another round of convection
developing along the coast early Friday morning moving offshore
after sunrise. An additional round of convection will likely
develop late morning through the afternoon as the sea breeze front
moves inland. The best rain chances (30-50%) look be contained to
the Rio Grande Valley, with a 15-30% chance of rain across the
northern counties.
High temperatures look to remain in the 90s through the period,
with overnight lows largely remaining in the low to mid 70s.
Western portions of the CWA may see low temperatures dip into the
upper 60s tonight and Friday night.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Primarily VFR conditions outside of isolated to scattered
convection now until the afternoon. Showers over the Gulf waters
and Mexico continue to work their way NW this morning. There is
low confidence whether these will impact BRO, but noted in PROB30
groups until 14Z. More convection later this morning is expected
along the sea breeze, with most likely times of impact denoted at
each sites` PROB30 group - earlier at BRO (16-21Z), later at MFE
(18-22Z) as showers propagate inland. These may temporarily
reduce flight conditions to MVFR/IFR if they pass over an
airfield, as well as bring gusty winds and lightning. Friday
evening and overnight, VFR should prevail.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1005 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Generally favorable marine conditions are expected to continue
through the period. Daily rain chances will persist through the
period, with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
possible over the Gulf waters. Light to moderate onshore winds and
slight to moderate seas are expected to continue through the
period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             90  76  91  76 /  60  20  60  30
HARLINGEN               92  72  93  73 /  40  10  50  10
MCALLEN                 94  76  96  76 /  50  10  40  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         94  72  96  74 /  40  10  20   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      87  81  87  80 /  40  30  50  50
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     88  76  90  76 /  40  20  50  30
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...60-BE
LONG TERM....60-BE
AVIATION...69-HK

NWS BRO Office Area Forecast Discussion