Lordsburg New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

669
FXUS64 KEPZ 080339
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
939 PM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025
...New DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 928 PM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025
- Temperatures remain near or a few degrees above normal through
   Saturday before cooling down early next week.
- Low chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday, favoring
   northern and eastern areas.
-  Drier conditions Thursday and Friday, trending back up this
   weekend and early next week with some remnant tropical moisture
   moving into the area.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 928 PM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025
The frontal boundary that brought us some moisture/storm chances and
slightly cooler temps will linger in the area for Wed. Isolated to
scattered convection lingers for much of tonight according to hi-res
models, mainly over south-central NM, as the front continues to
provide forcing. The front makes slow progression westward tomorrow,
pushing storm chances over west-central NM. Mostly dry conditions
are expected in the lowlands with the Gila Region most likely to see
PM storms where dynamics and instability are most favorable, but not
robust for strong/severe convection. Still, gusty winds and small
hail are possible for northern areas. Prevailing post-frontal winds
remain breezy along the I-10 corridor with speeds of 10-20 mph from
the ESE through the day.
Heading into Thu, the upper high to the east shifts closer to us
over W TX, nudging most of the moisture into AZ. Storm chances will
lower further for Thu with only slight PoPs in the Gila. The
pressure gradient loosens a bit with slightly lighter winds during
the day. A similar day is expected for Fri as mainly dry conditions
prevail for the region.
For the weekend and early next week, our attention shifts
to the E-Pac with multiple tropical systems rolling up the Baja.
First is Hurricane Priscilla, which is currently off the southern
tip of Baja and forecast to cross the northern Baja before moving
into Sonora and AZ Fri/Sat. Its moisture gets scooped up by a
Pacific trough and pushing through the Four Corners, bringing us a
healthy amount of tropical moisture on Sat. Western areas are
favored to see rain/storm chances. Any flash flood risk will depend
on how deep the moisture is. The second tropical feature to watch
for is a wave along the southern coast of Mexico, which is modeled
to move parallel to the coast through the weekend, following a
similar path to Priscilla. If this wave forms into Raymond, the
upper high looks to be placed just right for it to give us another
round of deep tropical moisture, maybe for several days next week.
PWs will most likely be well above normal Sat-Mon and possibly into
the middle of next week with a low risk of flash flooding if the
precip is more convective in nature. Areas west of the RGV will
again be favored to see storms and heavy rainfall with the second
tropical remnants.
Temperatures will be near or slightly below normal through Thu, then
warming through Sat. Temps fall back to below average early next
week with the expected increase in cloud cover and rain chances.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 525 PM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025
A line of thunderstorms is developing N-S near KLRU to begin the
period behind a slow-moving outflow boundary that`s pushing west
towards KDMN. TS are most likely to impact KLRU this evening with
lower confidence for the other terminals. Radar trends will be
monitored for possible amendments, but all TAF sites have a
mention of VCSH or VCTS. Storms will be capable of producing gusts
to 30kts, small hail, and heavy rain. The convection is expected
to mostly dissipate overnight, but there is a low chance of
redevelopment through the early morning. Gustiness lingers early
this evening from ESE and again tomorrow afternoon to near 20kts.
Generally light winds expected tonight outside of gusty outflows.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1212 AM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025
Fire weather will not be a big concern over the next week with a
persistent east-southeast flow through the end of the week keeping
RH`s in the 20s and 30s. There will be some scattered showers and
storms through Wednesday followed by dry weather for Thu/Fri. The
breakdown of an upper ridge will bring a surge of moisture from
the west going into the weekend and early next week with some
widespread wetting rains expected along with higher RH`s and
cooler temperatures. Winds over the I-10 corridor may be a concern
through Friday with sustained speeds of 15-30mph possible,
especially west of Deming.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  85  68  84  67 /  20  30  10  10
Sierra Blanca            80  59  79  57 /  20  10  20  10
Las Cruces               80  62  81  61 /  20  30  20  10
Alamogordo               80  60  81  59 /  30  40  20  10
Cloudcroft               56  43  58  42 /  40  40  30  20
Truth or Consequences    77  60  78  60 /  30  40  30  30
Silver City              75  57  74  56 /  10  20  30  30
Deming                   83  65  83  63 /  20  30  20  20
Lordsburg                81  65  82  64 /  10  10  10  20
West El Paso Metro       83  67  83  67 /  20  30  10  10
Dell City                82  60  82  59 /  20  20  20  10
Fort Hancock             88  65  87  64 /  20  10  10  10
Loma Linda               76  59  76  58 /  20  20  10  10
Fabens                   86  65  85  64 /  20  20  10  10
Santa Teresa             83  65  82  64 /  20  30  10  10
White Sands HQ           81  64  81  63 /  20  30  20  10
Jornada Range            80  61  80  61 /  20  40  20  10
Hatch                    83  62  83  62 /  20  30  20  10
Columbus                 85  64  84  65 /  10  30  10  10
Orogrande                80  60  79  60 /  20  30  20  10
Mayhill                  65  48  67  47 /  40  40  40  20
Mescalero                69  47  70  47 /  50  40  40  20
Timberon                 66  47  67  46 /  30  40  30  20
Winston                  70  51  69  51 /  20  30  40  30
Hillsboro                77  58  77  58 /  20  30  30  30
Spaceport                78  59  79  59 /  30  40  30  20
Lake Roberts             75  53  74  52 /  10  20  40  30
Hurley                   76  58  77  57 /  10  20  20  20
Cliff                    83  60  82  60 /  10  10  30  20
Mule Creek               79  57  78  57 /   0  10  30  30
Faywood                  76  59  75  59 /  20  30  30  30
Animas                   83  65  83  64 /  10  10  10  20
Hachita                  82  63  82  63 /  10  20  10  10
Antelope Wells           83  62  83  61 /  10  10  10  10
Cloverdale               78  61  79  60 /  10  10  10  20
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...39-Aronson

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion