Little Elm, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

436
FXUS64 KFWD 142331
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
631 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
...New Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Seasonably hot weather will continue this week with afternoon
  highs in the lower to mid 90s.
- There will be a slight chance of thunderstorms on a daily basis
  beginning Wednesday and continuing through next weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1257 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025/
/Through Monday/
Benign weather will continue through Monday. Showers and storms
tied to a shortwave trough in West Texas have remained outside of
the area this morning. However, there is a low potential (20%
chance) some of this activity could skirt portions of the Big
Country this afternoon. Otherwise, rain-free weather will continue
through the period for most areas, with temperatures remaining a
few degrees above normal. Afternoon highs will peak in the low to
mid 90s today and tomorrow with morning lows in the upper 60s to
mid 70s. Subsidence will see a subtle increase tonight into Monday
as the upper level ridge axis attempts to build back into the
region. This will keep most locations rain-free again on Monday,
despite another low potential (20% chance) for isolated showers or
storms in the Big Country as another weak shortwave moves across
the region.
Barnes
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 1257 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025/
/Monday Night Onward/
Following another quiet day on Tuesday, the upper level ridge will
shift further west once again heading into the mid-week time
period, placing us beneath intermittent north/northwest flow
aloft for the remainder of the forecast period. A series of
shortwave troughs will swing around the base of an upper level
low centered near the Midwest/Great Lakes region, bringing
periodic rain chances to North and Central Texas Wednesday onward
as these disturbances skirt the area. Temperatures will trend
closer to average values during this time period (though still
slightly above normal), with afternoon highs in the mid 80s to low
90s Thursday through the weekend. We`ll have to monitor the
potential for any of these upper level disturbances to be
accompanied by a cold front, especially late next weekend into
early next week.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFS/
A passing mid level disturbance will help keep mid and high cloud
cover around along with just enough lift for some isolated showers
across North Texas, but VFR should continue to prevail through the
period. South winds will generally prevail although there will be
a little more variability in direction from 150-210 degrees
through the day Monday. Wind speeds around 10 kt can be expected
with intermittent gusts above 20 kt from midday into early
afternoon.
Dunn
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    74  94  73  93  74 /   0   5   0   5   0
Waco                72  92  70  92  71 /   0   5   0   0   0
Paris               70  92  68  93  69 /   0   5   0   5   5
Denton              70  94  69  93  70 /   0   5   0   5   0
McKinney            70  94  70  93  70 /   0   5   0   5   0
Dallas              75  94  74  94  75 /   0   5   0   5   0
Terrell             70  92  70  92  70 /   0   5   0   5   0
Corsicana           73  93  71  93  72 /   0   5   0   0   0
Temple              70  92  68  91  68 /   0   5   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       69  94  68  93  68 /   5  10   0   5   0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion