Linlithgo, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

179
FXUS61 KALY 301051
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
651 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in today with an increase of
sunshine during the afternoon.  The surface high builds in from
southern Quebec Wednesday into Thursday with slightly below
normal to seasonable temperatures and some areas of frost
Thursday morning. Temperatures modify above normal late in the
week into the weekend with continued dry conditions, as high
pressure remains near the Mid Atlantic Region and the New
England Coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 237 am EDT...A cold front continues to move southward
across NY and west-central New England this morning that is
moisture starved. High clouds continue to impact the region this
morning with a denser canopy from the Capital Region southward.
Thinning of the high clouds over the Lake George Region has
allowed for some patchy fog. The skies will be partly to mostly
sunny today with high pressure building in south of James Bay.
North to northwest winds will increase to 5 to 15 mph with some
gusts 20-25 mph channeled down the Champlain Valley into the
Hudson River Valley. High will still run above seasonal normals
despite the cold advection with mainly mid/upper 70s in the
valleys and 60s to lower 70s over the higher terrain. With the
dry advection with the front coupled with deeper mixing,
dewpoints will fall into the 30s and 40s through the afternoon.
Tonight will be breezy early on, and then the winds will lighten
in the early morning hours. Some patchy frost may develop in the
southern Adirondacks, but not expecting widespread frost with
lows in the mid 30s to lower/mid 40s across the forecast area.
Cooler conditions expected on Wed with the 1034 hPa sfc
anticyclone building in from south-central Quebec. PWATs will
run a couple standard deviations below normal. Max temps will be
near to slightly below normal and we went slightly cooler than
the NBM with lower to mid 60s in the valley areas and 50s to
around 60F over the higher terrain. Near ideal radiational
cooling conditions Wed Night/Thu morning for areas to widespread
frost outside the Capital District/mid Hudson Valley and NW CT.
The growing season will be over in the southern Dacks (Oct 1),
but frost and possible freeze headlines will likely be needed
for many locations outside the Tri Cities and the mid Hudson
Valley for radiational frost with temps 32-36F. Some patchy fog
may also occur near major river valley and lakes.
After a cool start in the morning another nice early Fall day
is expected with the sfc anticyclone in control with similar
temps to Wed, but slightly warmer over the higher terrain with
mid 50 to mid 60s across the region. The sfc anticyclone shifts
south near New England Thu night. It will be cool again with
some patchy to areas of frost. We went a little cooler/colder
than the NBM (25th percentile) with lows in the mid 30s to lower
40s. Some focused frost advisories may be needed again, where
temps fall into the 33-36F range. Patchy fog near the Upper
Hudson and CT River Valleys may occur again.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The extended forecast features more continued dry weather with
high pressure in control. The NBM was pretty much accepted for
the forecast which shows an uptick of temps Fri to Sat back
above normal with mid and upper level ridging building in from
the Southeast and Midwest. The sfc high will be over the Mid
Atlantic Region and south of the New England Coast. H850 temps
rise above normal on the weekend. Highs on Fri will be mainly in
the 60s and lower 70s and rise into upper 60s to upper 70s on
Sat. Radiational cooling at night both days allow temps to fall
into the 40s to lower 50s.
The hottest day of the week may occur on Sunday with mid and
upper level height rising further aloft. Max temps may run 10
to 15 degrees above normal for early OCT with lower 80s possible
in the Mohawk and Hudson River Valleys. The warm, anomalous
weather continues into early next week with an increase of
clouds, as a cold front approaches from the west. The next
chance of widespread light showers will be on Tue.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 12z Wednesday...Thick cirrus canopy continues to
overspread ALB, POU, and PSF tonight while the canopy thins out
towards GFL. Given clearer skies at GFL and temperatures cooling
towards the respective dew point, fog has resulted in IFR vis
with intermittent improvements to MVFR vis. VFR flying
conditions elsewhere.
Early fog at GFL dissipates by 12-13 UTC. Then winds become
north to northeasterly by 14-16 UTC and turn breezy with
sustained winds 8-12 kt with gusts up to 15-20kts (strongest at
GFL and ALB due to enhanced channel flow) through early evening.
While gusts weaken by 00 - 03 UTC, sustained northerly winds
remain near 5-10kts through the end of the TAF period. Low-level
wind shear may need to be added in future updates (mainly GFL
and ALB) for the evening hours as a cold front pushes through
the region and winds in the 1-2kft layer near 25-30kts.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. Patchy FG.
Thursday to Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Speciale

NWS ALY Office Area Forecast Discussion