Lindenwold, New Jersey Weather Forecast Discussion

307
FXUS61 KPHI 222012
AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
412 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure is in control through tonight as a warm front tracks
north of the area. A cold front will gradually track through the
region on Wednesday into Wednesday night before stalling south of
the area on Thursday. This front may lift back north as a warm front
on Thursday night before another cold front passes through late
Friday into Saturday. Broad high pressure then approaches from the
west on Sunday into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Ridging along the east coast early this afternoon will settle
offshore tonight. Low level clouds have been stubborn to mix
out with late September sun. However, satellite pics showing
clouds gradually eroding and expect sct-bkn clouds for the rest
of the afternoon.
A light southerly flow tonight will advect higher moisture into
the region, setting up for low clouds to develop overnight. An
isolated shower is also possible in the Poconos overnight.
A warm front will lift through the region Tuesday morning,
leading to a warmer day with temperatures peaking in the 80s,
but 70s Poconos and shore points. An approaching cold front
and shortwave then bring the risk for showers and even a few
thunderstorms late Tuesday northwest of the I-95 corridor.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Showers and thunderstorms associated with the pre-frontal trough
will continue into the evening hours on Tuesday from west to east
before diminishing after midnight. A few showers and storms may be
severe with the greatest potential located over western portions of
the area where best deep layer shear and instability overlap, but
overall its a very marginal environment to say the least in addition
to the loss of diurnal heating as the night progresses. After
midnight, shower activity will diminish with lows only falling into
the low to mid 60s.
The actual cold front won`t actually reach and cross through the
area until Wednesday or even Wednesday night before stalling within
the vicinity of the Delmarva on Thursday. So, Wednesday again looks
to be a warm day with highs upper 70s to low 80s despite mostly
cloudy skies as the area continues to lie within the warm sector.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms can therefore be expected
on Wednesday into Wednesday night as the front sinks south and a
shortwave aloft passes through. The severe potential looks to be
much less of a threat compared to Tuesday due to less instability,
however some thunder cannot be ruled out. Lows for Wednesday night
will remain mild in the 60s.
For Thursday and into Thursday night, an area of low pressure will
track across the Ohio Valley up into northern New England before
moving into Quebec. This system will cause the stalled boundary to
our south to lift back north as a warm front on Thursday as another
cold front approaches from the west for Thursday night. This system
will be the best opportunity for a widespread rainfall event to
occur across the area where perhaps rain may become heavy at times.
Additional details on this though will come at a later time. In
short, another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected to
continue through Thursday night. Temps will return to more
seasonable levels for Thursday.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The cold front will then cross through the area on Friday before
stalling south of the area through the weekend. With the front
remaining in close proximity through Saturday, this will keep at
least the mention of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms to
continue through Saturday night...greatest likelihood further south
in closer vicinity to the stalled front.
What happens beyond this time for Sunday and into early next week is
yet to be seen and highly uncertain. Broad high pressure will
develop over the center of the country, gradually building east with
time. Eyes will also be on the tropics as most global forecast
guidance has been consistent on developing a tropical cyclone
somewhere over the western Atlantic early next week with a cut-off
upper level low over the Deep South. How all these features interact
with one another will ultimately determine what kind of weather we
encounter beyond Sunday. More to come on this in the coming days...
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Rest of Today...VFR. MVFR ceilings will continue in the KRDG
area through 20Z. South wind 5-10 kt.
Tonight...VFR. Some MVFR ceilings possible in the KRDG area and
across interior southern New Jersey. Winds will be out of the
south at 5 knots or less.
Tuesday...VFR. Scattered showers northwest of I-95 corridor
after 18Z. South to southwest wind around 10 knots.
Outlook...
Tuesday night through Thursday night...Sub-VFR conditions
probable at times. Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms
primarily in the afternoon and evening hours. Patchy fog/mist also
possible.
Friday through Saturday...Sub-VFR conditions likely before improving
by the weekend. A chance of showers to continue through Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
No marine headlines are in effect through tomorrow morning. For
the rest of today. east- southeast winds 5 to 10 kts with seas
3 to 4 ft. Fair weather.
Tonight, south winds around 10 kts with fair weather and seas 3
to 4 ft.
Tuesday, southerly winds 10 to 15 kts with seas around
4 ft in the morning but increase to around 5 feet, mainly off
the coast of New Jersey. Small Craft Advisory in effect
beginning at 2 PM EDT. Lower seas south of Cape May and sub-SCA
winds in Delaware Bay will result in no headlines for those
zones.
Outlook...
Tuesday night...SCA in effect through 5 AM for coastal zones
north of Cape May, with sub-SCA conditions elsewhere. A chance
for showers and thunderstorms.
Wednesday through Saturday...No marine headlines expected, however a
brief period of SCA conditions may occur Thursday night ahead of a
cold front. Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms possible.
Rip Currents...
On Tuesday, winds turn more southerly at 10 to 15 mph with
breaking waves 2-4 feet. Southeast swells continue with a 10 to
12 second period. As a result, there is a HIGH risk for the
development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents for
the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches.
Conditions will be similar on Wednesday, though with more of a
southerly flow, the threat for the development of dangerous and
life threatening rip currents may be a bit less for Delaware
Beaches. Currently expecting a HIGH risk for the development of
dangerous and life threatening rip currents at the Jersey Shore
and a MODERATE risk for Delware Beaches.
For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...High Risk for Rip Currents through Tuesday evening for NJZ014-
     024>026.
DE...High Risk for Rip Currents through Tuesday evening for DEZ004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to 5 AM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ450>453.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DeSilva
NEAR TERM...Franklin/Guzzo
SHORT TERM...DeSilva
LONG TERM...DeSilva
AVIATION...DeSilva/Franklin
MARINE...DeSilva/Franklin/Hoeflich/MPS

NWS PHI Office Area Forecast Discussion