Lincolnton, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

181
FXUS62 KGSP 260012
AFDGSP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
812 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front tracks across the area overnight into Friday before
stalling along the Carolina coast this weekend, keeping unsettled
weather around. A tropical system may impact the area early next
week, but this remains highly uncertain for now. Temperatures near
normal Friday drop below normal this weekend into the middle of next
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Thursday: Showers and thunderstorms continue
lifting northeast across the forecast area this evening, with some
becoming strong to severe at times. Deep layer shear of 25-35 kts
will continue to be marginally favorable for organized convective
structures, with a very low-end potential for severe weather over
the next hour or so. Coverage of convection will dwindle throughout
the evening, but the presence of the upper trough to our west and
persistent moist conditions should result in isolated showers
persisting through the night. Forecast profiles indicate some drying
may occur in the mid-levels, so there is some potential for
extensive fog...perhaps locally dense to develop after midnight.
Humid/mostly cloudy conditions will result in min temps 5-10 degrees
above normal overnight.
Otherwise, upper trough extending from the Arklatex into the Great
Lakes will separate into two distinct features by tomorrow, as the
northern part of the trough accompanies jet max off the northeast
coast by the end of Friday, while the southern part of the trough
evolves into an upper low as it begins to butt heads with a strong
anticyclone over the western Atlantic. This pattern will maintain
deep southerly flow and ample moisture across the CWA through and an
overall pattern supportive of deep convective development through
the period. As the upper trough/upper low draws slowly closer,
associated weak frontal boundary is forecast to move into the
forecast area by Friday afternoon...providing another source of
convective initiation. Nevertheless, morning cloud cover is expected
to again be extensive, and destabilization therefore modest-at-best.
Nevertheless, at least scattered showers and storms are expected to
develop by Fri afternoon, warranting 30-50 PoPs across most of the
CWA. Weaker shear and modest instability will result in even less of
a severe storm threat, while locally heavy rainfall will be of some
concern through the period. Highs on Friday are expected to be right
around climo.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 105 PM EDT Thursday: An upper low moves from the middle TN
valley at the start of the period into our area and weakens by the
end of the period. At the surface, the cold front from the near term
stalls along the Carolina coast as waves of low pressure move north
along the boundary. Expect numerous to widespread showers and
scattered thunderstorms Saturday as deep moisture remains over the
area along with good forcing ahead of the upper low. Isolated heavy
rainfall will be possible, but severe storm chance will be low. That
said, some strong storms are possible. Some mid level drying takes
place Sunday and forcing weakens, but copious low level moisture
remains in place. Expect convective coverage to be scattered for
most of the area, isolated for the SW Upstate and NE GA. Brief,
heavy rainfall remains possible, along with a few strong storms.
Highs will be a couple of degrees below normal both days with lows 5
to 10 degrees above normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Thursday: All eyes then turn to the tropics and the
potential for a tropical cyclone to form. Model guidance continues
to vary greatly from run to run and from each other on the potential
impacts. Model guidance will hopefully get a better handle on the
situation by tomorrow as more aircraft and upper air data are
ingested. Also, a center needs to form for better model initiation.
The 12Z GFS is certainly a scary forecast for our area, but the 12Z
Canadian has come in with a scenario similar to its run yesterday
which keeps any cyclone off shore with little impact. The 12Z GFS
ensemble members show everything from no impact to a major impact.
All of this leads to a highly uncertain and low confidence forecast.
Given this, the forecast closely follows the national blend.
Generally scattered convection Monday and Tuesday with isolated
convection Wednesday and Thursday. Highs around 5 degrees below
normal Monday and Tuesday with lows around 5 degrees above normal.
Highs 5 to 10 degrees below normal Wednesday and Thursday with lows
around 5 degrees below normal.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Another active TAF period with scattered
showers and thunderstorms impacting the terminals ahead of a cold
front as of 00Z. TSRA risk has lowered at KAND, KAVL, and KHKY but
remains in place at KCLT, KGSP, and KGMU. The thunder risk will
gradually dwindle over the next hour or two, with SHRA chances
expected to linger, mainly east of the mountains, through late
tonight or early Friday morning. Cigs will gradually lower overnight
into daybreak Friday across all terminals , dropping to MVFR to IFR
levels. However, LIFR cigs cannot be entirely ruled out around
daybreak but confidence is low on this for now. Could also see MVFR
to IFR fog develop at KHKY, KAVL, KGSP, and KGMU overnight into
daybreak Friday. Wind at KAVL will gradually turn NW later tonight
(~04Z) as the front pushes across the mountains before toggling back
SE Friday afternoon. Winds at KAVL should then go VRB during the
late afternoon/early evening hours. Winds east of the mountains will
generally be S/SW through the period. However, winds east of the
mountains will briefly go light and VRB after daybreak into the
early afternoon hours Friday as the front stalls over the western
Carolinas. Despite the front, wind speeds through the TAF period
will be much lighter compared to the last few days, outside of SHRA
and TSRA chances. With TSRA returning Friday afternoon and evening,
went with PROB30s across all terminals towards the end of the TAF
period.
Outlook: Shower and thunderstorm chances, as well as associated
restrictions, continue for all terminals into the weekend thanks to
a stalled cold front along the Carolina coast. Fog and low stratus
are possible each morning, mainly in the mountain valleys but thick
cloud cover may limit this potential. A tropical system could bring
widespread restrictions and rain to at least a part of the area
early next week, but confidence remains very low at this time.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR/RWH
NEAR TERM...AR/JDL
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...AR

NWS GSP Office Area Forecast Discussion