Lincolndale, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

420
FXUS61 KOKX 240250
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1050 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Offshore high pressure will shift farther out into the Atlantic
through tonight while a cold front approaches from the north.
The front will settle over or just south of the area late
tonight into Wednesday night. The front will lift north of the
area Wednesday night into Thursday as weak low pressure passes
well to the west. A trailing cold front will remain nearby from
Friday into Saturday. A second cold front will move across on
Sunday, followed by high pressure for Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A cluster of thunderstorms will be exiting north out of southern
CT area by midnight. Another area of showers over central NJ may
still produce a lightning strike or two, but with warming cloud
tops and diminishing instability, the threat of a thunderstorm
as this area of showers moves into the city and LI will be
minimal. Thunderstorms have been sub-severe all night, and no
reason to think that should change. The focus of shower activity
after midnight will be primarily east of the city with scattered
coverage. Brief heavy downpours still possible, but just
looking at brief nuisance flooding in urban and poor drainage
areas as impacts. Patchy fog could also develop, especially
after midnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The cold front should sag just south of the area on Wed and
remain nearly stationary into Wed evening, then lift northward
again as a warm front later Wed night as weak low pressure
passes W of the Appalachians. Chances for showers and possibly
a tstm continue into daytime Wed, then more widespread
shower/tstm activity expected for Wed night into Thu as the
front lifts northward late Wed night into Thu morning, then Thu
afternoon as another cold front approaches.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NBM was followed with no changes.
Key Points:
* A slow moving area of low pressure, and cold front, is expected to
  impact the region Friday and Saturday. A second cold front follows
  on Sunday.
* Chances of showers persist through the weekend.
* Drier conditions expected Sunday into the first part of next week
  as high pressure builds back into the region.
* Daytime temperatures will be near to slightly above normal
  Friday through Monday, with highs in the 70s. Nighttime lows
  will be above normal Friday night and Saturday night, and
  return to more normal levels Sunday night and Monday night.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold front from the north moves into the region late tonight
and becomes stationary across the area on Wednesday.
VFR to start, but MVFR will be possible with any showers and
thunderstorms tonight, as well as late tonight - especially
away from the city terminals. Will maintain TEMPO MVFR cigs in
the city during the Weds morning push. Still cannot completely
rule out a thunderstorm tonight, but not enough probability for
a mention in the TAFs.
Chance of showers and thunderstorms late afternoon into the
evening, mainly to the north of the NYC and LI terminals.
SW-S winds 10 kt or less will go light and variable late
tonight. Mainly E to SE winds at 10 kt or less for Weds.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
TEMPO MVFR cigs might not occur during the Weds morning push,
but it is still possible for prevailing MVFR cigs.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Wednesday night through Saturday: Periods of MVFR with showers
possible. Isold tstms possible at times.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
SCA continues on the ocean waters given long period swells up to
5 ft associated with distant Hurricane Gabrielle. These elevated
seas should persist into at least Wed afternoon.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Showers/tstms ahead of a cold front could produce downpours with
brief nuisance flooding in urban and poor drainage locales,
mainly across interior portions of the Lower Hudson Valley and
SW Connecticut tonight evening, also possibly across SE CT and
the forks of Long Island late tonight. Antecedent conditions
have been notably dry though, so the risk for flash flooding is
low.
More widespread rainfall of 1-2 inches is likely from late Wed
afternoon into Thu night. This does not appear to warrant flood
concerns more than the possibility of localized minor issues.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A high rip current risk continues into Wed as long period 4-5
ft SE swell continues from distant Hurricane Gabrielle. The risk
should lower to moderate on Thu as ocean seas subside.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through Wednesday evening for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Wednesday for ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/BG
NEAR TERM...JC/BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JC/DW
MARINE...BC/BG
HYDROLOGY...BC/BG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion