800 FXUS63 KLSX 231151 AFDLSXArea Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 651 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms will overspread the forecast area from west to east today. Intermittent showers and an occasional thunderstorm will continue across much of the area through Wednesday night.
- Dry weather is forecast for Friday into the weekend with temperatures few degrees above normal in the low to mid 80s.
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.SHORT TERM... (Through Tonight) Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
A closed mid-upper level low centered near the intersecting borders of Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming will open up and be absorbed into the long wave trough over the Great Lakes over the next 24 hours. This process is forcing low level cyclogenesis over the Great Plains today, which is producing a moderately strong low level jet that will bring another round of showers and a few thunderstorms to the Mid Mississippi Valley today. The 06Z RAP is showing SBCAPE in excess of 2000 J/Kg this afternoon across parts of eastern Missouri and western Illinois. However, this seems overestimated as the GFS shows nowhere near that much (
NWS LSX Office Area Forecast Discussion