Leola, South Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

024
FXUS63 KABR 291902
AFDABR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
202 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Abnormally warm temperatures (Highs in the mid to upper 80s, 15-
20 degrees above normal) will be in place through most of this
coming week.
- Dry and windy conditions will persist through the middle of the
week. Southerly wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph are expected through
Wednesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 156 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
As of 2 PM, temperatures around the area have risen into the upper
70s to low 80s with winds out of the south to southwest at around 10
to 15 mph with some isolated gusts up to 25 mph. Showers have moved
into northern SD and are expected to move into ND in the next few
hours.
Tonight, we remain in southerly flow aloft with a high pressure
center off to our east over IA and WI. This south to southwest flow
regime will last through the weekend at least. Sunday morning, an
upper level low pressure system moves up from the south. Following
this, there is good consensus among the models of a low over the
Pacific Northwest that will slowly move towards the region and bring
our upper flow around to the west for the end of the long term
period.
Another LLJ is expected tonight with winds across central SD
potentially gusting to 25-35 mph, closer to 25 mph across
northeastern SD. This could also lead to some very isolated showers
as we have some moisture coming up from the southwest. This moisture
will also help keep dew points and RH values above red flag
criteria. Another LLJ is possible Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning. There might be a couple isolated showers with this as well.
Starting Friday we have some 20-50% PoPs as a low pressure system
moves towards and across the area. The time period with highest
chances is Friday night.
Temperatures the next few days will be 15-20 degrees above
normal for this time of year, although record highs are not
expected. However, record high lows may be possible in several
locations across the forecast area as lows are expected to be 15-25
degrees above normal. Wind gusts of 25-35 mph will spread east
Tuesday and continue into Wednesday. Some light elevated smoke will
move up from the south Tuesday, but no near surface smoke is
expected.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR conditions continue at all TAF sites. Gusts of 20 to 25 kts
will move into KPIR and KMBG this afternoon and are expected to
last through the overnight hours. Gusts around 20 kts will be
possible through the overnight at KABR and KATY.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...13

NWS ABR Office Area Forecast Discussion