Lennox, California Weather Forecast Discussion

730
FXUS66 KLOX 292111
AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
211 PM PDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...29/121 PM.
Cooler than normal conditions will persist through the week, but
temperatures should rise a little each day starting on Wednesday.
Night through morning low clouds with patchy drizzle will be
possible across the coast and valleys through Tuesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...29/206 PM.
Overall looks like a quiet next few days as a couple of weak
upper level troughs move through the region. The first trough is
passing over the area this afternoon and it`s creating some mixing
in the lower levels that is disrupting the marine layer along the
Central Coast. Hi res models are in pretty good agreement showing
those clouds returning there tonight as well as south of Pt
Conception but confidence with that is definitely on the lower
side, especially with another trough passage expected Tuesday. For
now have left the 4000 ft marine layer in tact across all
coast/valley areas tonight and Tuesday along with the possibility
of some morning drizzle, especially along the Central Coast and up
against the lower coastal slopes. Highs should drop a couple
degrees in most areas, possibly more if clouds linger longer than
today.
Heights will rise Wed and Thu after the trough passes which should
bring the marine layer back down to relatively normal levels and
bring some warmer temperatures to the area. By Thursday highs are
expected to be within a couple degrees of normal in most areas.
There will also be some increasing northerly winds in some areas
but mainly the southwest Santa Barbara County.
.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...29/210 PM.
The low that is currently spinning off the Aleutian Islands, is
expected to move little through Wednesday, then quickly get shoved
towards the southeast and into Nevada by Friday. There is a range
of placements of where that low will be on Friday, varying from
west to east by about 100 miles. A more west track (smallest
chance) could result in a few isolated showers over the area. A
more east track (higher chance) would result in some gusty west to
northwest winds on Friday, including the ocean and coastal areas.
Fairly benign conditions to follow over the weekend. Another low
will be in the neighborhood early next week, with a lot of signals
pointing to an inside slider track. As should be expected, there
is a lot of uncertainty in terms of timing, track, and impacts -
from high winds, showers and thunderstorms, or gusty north winds
with moderate fire weather concerns. Stay tuned.
&&
.AVIATION...29/1557Z.
At 1600Z at KLAX, the marine layer was based around 2000 feet
deep. The top of the inversion was 5200 feet with a temperature
of 17 degrees Celsius.
For 18Z TAF package, high confidence in desert TAFs, but only low
to moderate confidence in coastal/valley TAFs. Timing of flight
category changes could be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts.
KLAX...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. There is a 30% chance of
MVFR CIGs 18Z-02Z. Timing of flight category changes in current
TAF could be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts. No significant
easterly wind component is expected.
KBUR...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Timing of return of MVFR
CIGs could be +/- 3 hours of current 08Z forecast.
&&
.MARINE...29/135 PM.
For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Today through Tuesday, high confidence in wind and seas
remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. On Wednesday,
there is a 30% chance of SCA level winds across PZZ670 and a
60-70% chance across PZZ673/676. For Thursday and Friday, there is
a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds and seas across all the Outer
Waters. On Saturday, the chances of SCA level winds continuing
drops to 30-50%.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Today through Tuesday, high
confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For
Wednesday, there is a 30% chance of SCA level winds in the
afternoon and evening hours. For Thursday and Friday, there is a
50-60% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening
hours. On Saturday, there is a 30% chance of SCA level winds in
the afternoon and evening hours.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. For a majority of the southern
Inner Waters, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below
SCA levels through Saturday. The only exception will be the
western half of the Santa Barbara Channel with a 50-70% chance of
SCA level winds Tuesday through Friday, mainly in the late
afternoon and evening hours.
Through Wednesday, a southerly swell of 3 to 6 feet will impact
the coastal waters and may produce issues for exposed south facing
harbors. Starting Wednesday night, seas will build to 7 to 11 feet
across the Outer Waters and nearshore waters north of Point Sal,
and 5 to 8 feet across the Inner Waters south of Point Conception.
&&
.BEACHES...29/135 PM.
A moderately-long period southerly swell will last into
Wednesday, generated by Hurricane Narda. Hazardous rip currents
and elevated surf are expected to continue for south- facing
beaches, especially across Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, as
well as Avila Beach and Port San Luis for the Central Coast.
Additionally, particularly vulnerable south-facing beaches may
see shallow coastal flooding over normally dry beach areas.
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY remains in effect for the Malibu Coast, with
surf of 5 to 8 feet again expected. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT
remains in effect through Wednesday for all other south-facing
beaches along the Central Coast (4-7 feet, local sets to 8 feet),
Ventura and Los Angeles Counties (3-6 feet).
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Wednesday afternoon
      for zones 87-340-346-354-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until 6 PM PDT Wednesday for
      zone 362. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MW/Kittell
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
BEACHES...RAT
SYNOPSIS...RK
weather.gov/losangeles
Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS LOX Office Area Forecast Discussion