Leeds, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

027
FXUS64 KBMX 021103
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
603 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 547 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
- No hazardous weather impacts are anticipated the next seven
   days. However, drought conditions are most likely going to
   increase across the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
Water vapor imagery this evening reveals a trough draped along
the eastern seaboard and an upper ridge quickly building in behind
it. This upper level ridging/increased subsidence will help keep
us dry in the short term. While chances are very low, we *could*
see a rogue shower or two across our far southern areas as a H7
vort max ridges around the southern periphery of a mid level high
pressure. Forecast soundings hint at a thin layer of moisture
around H7 but also show a large pocket of dry air just below. With
that said, the dry air will likely win out and we will remain
rain-free.
Otherwise, temps on Thursday will warm into the low to mid 80s for
most. Our eastern border may not break out of the upper 70s as a
weak wedge flow setup develops.  An influx of drier air Thursday
evening into Friday morning will allow temps to fall into the mid
50s for the northern half of the CWA.
95/Castillo
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
Dry conditions remain in place as we wrap up the work week. By
Sunday, a trough moving across the Plains will begin to nudge the
ridge east, allowing a coastal low the opportunity to lift towards
the Northern Gulf coast. The exact placement of the low will
determine who is lucky enough to receive some much needed
rainfall. For now, we will continue with low to moderate chances
across our southern areas Sunday into early next week as a plume
of healthy moisture looks to accompany the coastal low. This low
looks to quickly shift west/wash out as an Atlantic high
strengthens. This will keep an east-southeasterly flow in place
across the region. Will continue with low chance of diurnally
driven rain through mid week as sufficient moisture lingers
around.
Despite increased rain chances late this weekend and into next week,
most of us will remain dry. Dry conditions and warm temps with highs
in the mid 80s will likely result in worsening of our ongoing
moderate to severe drought. The recent monthly drought outlook
doesn`t look good for us with additional drought development
likely.
95/Castillo
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 600 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
VFR conditions prevail through this TAF cycle. Winds will pick up
through the morning as the pressure gradient tightens across the
area. Gusts from 15-20 knots are likely through mid afternoon.
Winds will become light again during the evening and overnight
periods.
16
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
The area should remain mostly dry. MinRH values should fall into
the low to mid 30s for many areas this afternoon. No significant
moisture return is expected until late weekend and into early next
week with low rain chances by Sunday afternoon. Because of this,
drought conditions will remain ongoing, with additional expansion
possible given the lack of rain.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     82  54  81  54 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    81  56  80  58 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  84  59  82  60 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  88  59  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      85  58  83  60 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      81  59  80  62 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  84  61  83  63 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        82  60  80  62 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...16

NWS BMX Office Area Forecast Discussion