Lawrence, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

805
FXUS63 KGRR 301146
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
746 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather and above average temps through next weekend
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
- Dry weather and above average temps through next weekend
Confidence remains very high that we will continue to see the
extended period of dry weather along with above average temperatures
last right through next weekend and into the early part of next week.
Strong upper ridge remains centered just SW of the state near
Chicago. The upper ridge axis extending to the NW into Canada is
supporting a sfc ridge to our north in Western Ontario. This is
supporting the low level wind flow from the E/NE. This flow will
cool the area down a few degrees for a couple of days. Instead of
highs in the 80s, we will see highs be tempered a bit back into the
mid 70s for a couple of days.
The flow from the east will gradually shift to be from the south by
late in the week as the sfc high shifts to the NE U.S. by Thursday
afternoon. This will allow highs to warm back into the lower 80s.
Even though the flow will be veering to become from the S, we will
not see much moisture advection for a bit as the flow will be coming
from the SE with a source region of the Appalachians.
We will see reinforcement of the upper ridge build over the area
this weekend as additional energy comes onshore over the West Coast.
This long wave trough coming in from the WNW looks to eventually be
the feature that will bring the next chance of rain to the area with
the cold front coming in, and a better inflow coming in from the
Gulf.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 746 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
We have had some periods of fog this morning as expected, mainly
along the I-94 corridor. Obviously this will all burn off very
quickly by 13-14z.
We are looking at mainly just some high clouds streaming overhead
today, coming in from our west. Low level easterly flow will
continue. This easterly flow is hinted by multiple models to
advect moisture over the area tonight from Lakes Huron, St.
Clair, and Erie. Wind profiles are showing 20 knots just off of
the sfc, which would support stratus vs. fog. Have added this in
to all terminals late in the period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
We do not anticipate any marine headlines being needed over the next
few days. The winds will be increasing tonight into Wednesday,
however they will be offshore in nature. Anything that might approach
advisory criteria will be offshore and beyond our area. The offshore
winds right now, will gradually to shift to become from the south by
later this week and this weekend. Winds speeds will remain elevated
with a decent flow expected.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...NJJ
AVIATION...NJJ
MARINE...NJJ

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion