220 FXUS64 KBRO 120357 AFDBROArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1057 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1041 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025
- A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect through sunrise and a High Risk of Rip Currents are in effect through Sunday evening.
- An influx of tropical moisture is expected to bring a low chance (30%) for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday.
- Temperatures are expected to be near seasonal for the forecast period.
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.DISCUSSION... Issued at 1041 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025
An upper level ridge looks to remain in place over the central US through mid week, with broad subsidence and dry air aloft generally supporting rain free conditions across Deep South Texas. A week upper level trough moving through the southern periphery of the ridge may briefly increase forcing and mid level moisture Tuesday into Wednesday. This will provide a low (30%) chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms along the sea breeze Tuesday afternoon.
Otherwise, warm temperatures are expected through the period, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s this weekend climbing to the upper 90s by the end of the week. The combination of long period swell and higher astronomical tides will lead to minor coastal flooding around high tide and increased rip current strength for the next couple days.
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.AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 610 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025
VFR conditions are expected to continue through the period. Winds are expected to become light and variable tonight with clear to mostly clear skies. Light southeasterly winds are expected to return by mid-morning.
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.MARINE... Issued at 1041 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025
Generally favorable marine conditions are expected through the period, with light to moderate easterly to southeasterly winds and moderate seas persisting through mid-week. Slight seas look to return for the later half of the week.
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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 70 89 73 89 / 0 0 0 10 HARLINGEN 65 91 68 91 / 0 0 0 10 MCALLEN 68 94 71 94 / 0 0 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 65 93 67 94 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 77 84 78 85 / 0 0 0 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 70 87 72 88 / 0 0 0 10
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.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for TXZ451-454-455.
GM...None. &&
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SHORT TERM...60-BE LONG TERM....60-BE AVIATION...60
NWS BRO Office Area Forecast Discussion