226 FXUS61 KPBZ 011138 AFDPBZArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 738 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS... Dry weather will continue with temperatures trending back to above normal by the weekend.
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.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry conditions continue -------------------------------------------------------------
Surface high pressure north of the region will maintain generally light surface winds out of the northeast and dry conditions. Cirrus has moved east of the region but despite relatively light winds, drier air that The northwesterly flow will usher in relatively cooler temperatures, and daytime highs will be lower than observed Tuesday and closer to seasonal norms.
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.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry conditions continue - Slightly cooler temperatures. ----------------------------------------------------------------
High confidence in eastern CONUS ridging dominating the period with continued dry conditions. Due to clear skies and light winds overnight, low temperatures are expected to remain around or just below normal due to more efficient radiational cooling.
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.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... KEY MESSAGES:
- High confidence in warm and dry conditions prevailing through the weekend. - Low confidence on timing/strength of upper-level trough at the start of next week. -------------------------------------------------------------------
The ensembles remain consistent in showing the broad eastern CONUS ridge remaining through the weekend, returning above normal temperatures to the region and maintaining dry conditions. Into the start of next week, an upper level trough will begin to move into the area. There is low confidence in the latest ensemble guidance as to when the trough will arrive and how strong it will be. A stronger or slower trough increases the probability of observing measurable rain (>= 0.01") on Tuesday/Wednesday.
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.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A strong high pressure over Quebec with a ridge extending southwestward to western Tennessee will gradually move southeastward to northern New England by tomorrow. During this time, a light northeasterly wind today will gradually veer southeasterly tomorrow. Mostly clear conditions today with cirrus moving in tomorrow.
.OUTLOOK.... Patchy river valley fog is possible during the weekend, otherwise VFR is expected through Sunday under high pressure.
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.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None.
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SYNOPSIS...88 NEAR TERM...88 SHORT TERM...88 LONG TERM...88 AVIATION...Lupo
NWS PBZ Office Area Forecast Discussion