Lansing, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

583
FXUS61 KBGM 151032
AFDBGM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
632 AM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate the weather over the next week, bringing
mostly sunny skies and warm temperatures. There is a small chance
that a coastal low may bring a few light rain showers to northeast
Pennsylvania midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Starting off with plenty of river/creek/lake valley fog early this
morning. This fog will quickly burn off and dissipate by mid
morning. Expect mostly sunny skies through the rest of the day, but
there will be some high level clouds streaming across NE PA into the
afternoon hours. It will be warm, with highs in the mid-70s to lower
80s expected. High pressure remains in place tonight, with mainly
clear skies and patchy valley fog once again. Lows dip down into the
50s areawide. A coastal low remains south across the Carolinas
and southern Mid-Atlantic states for Tuesday. Our area will see
and easterly flow and a 1025mb high remains in place. It will be
another sunny day, except for a few late day high clouds again
for NE PA and the Wyoming Valley/Poconos region. Very warm with
highs in the mid- 70s to lower 80s once again. This is about
10-12 degrees above average for this time of year.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level low will spin, and remain nearly stationary over
eastern NC to the southern DELMARVA region Tuesday night, Wednesday
and Wednesday night. By Thursday the low weakens and becomes and
open trough at 500/700mb as it then gradually slides east off the
coast. By Thursday night the coastal low completely weakens and a
north/northwest flow regime takes hold over the area.
As for sensible weather, expect increasing mid and high level clouds
over the area Tuesday night into Wednesday; especially from the Twin
Tiers south into NE PA. There will also be a slight chance for a few
showers in this timeframe, mainly along and south of a Monticello to
Scranton line. It should remain dry across Central NY, with warm
temperatures continuing areawide. Thursday into Thursday night is
looking dry across the entire forecast area with mostly sunny/clear
skies expected much of the time.
Highs will be in the mid-70s to lower 80s Wednesday afternoon, with
75-85F expected Thursday. Overnight lows stay relatively mild in the
50s each night.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Model guidance is trending toward a faster, dry cold frontal passage
during the early morning hours Friday. This feature will bring
cooler temperatures and a slightly breezy north-northwest wind
between 10-20 mph through the day. Skies remain sunny to mostly
sunny, but 850mb temperatures fall to around +10C over Central NY
and +12C for the Wyoming Valley. Therefore high temperatures are
forecast to be in the upper 60s to mid-70s...except still near 80 in
the Wyoming Valley region. Saturday features a sprawling 1030mb high
sliding into New England from Canada. Our area will see abundant
sunshine and seasonable temperatures.
A few more clouds could move in for Sunday and Monday and we
can`t rule out a stray shower by early next week...but there are
no well organized frontal systems moving through, so it should
be largely dry. Temperatures gradually warm back up to above
average levels, with highs well into the 70s. Much cooler
overnight lows are expected, especially for Friday and Saturday
nights under the strong high pressure center. Lows will be in
the mid-30s to mid-40s Friday night, 40s Saturday night, then
back to mainly upper 40s and 50s for Sunday night.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Morning fog should keep LIFR conditions at ELM until 13-14z and
MVFR visby at ITH until 1300z. VFR conditions are expected
across the entire region by mid morning into the overnight hours
as high pressure will once again dominate the weather pattern.
Tonight will see another round of fog, with ELM seeing IFR/LIFR
conditions after 06z and MVFR visby at ITH starting around 9z.
Guidance is showing a chance for fog and IFR restrictions at BGM
and RME, but given the very extended dry spell and fog not
forming at either of these terminals over the past few nights,
current thinking is that we will once again see clear
conditions.
Outlook...
Tuesday through Friday...VFR except typical valley fog likely
each late night/early morning for at least KELM.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...JTC

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion