Lake Waccamaw, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

516
FXUS62 KILM 171021
AFDILM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
621 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move away from the East Coast today, allowing
warm and dry weather to develop as high pressure builds in.
Saturday will turn breezy as high pressure builds in from the
north and temperatures return back towards normal.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Gale-force low pressure made landfall Tuesday evening on Virginia`s
eastern shore and is now centered across the southern Chesapeake
Bay. Models show the low meandering across southeastern Virginia
today as it becomes vertically aligned beneath the 500 mb low. The
surface and upper level features together should lift out to the
northeast tonight leaving behind cyclonic curvature to the mean flow
along the East Coast.
Areas of mainly mid level cloud cover will dot the skies today due
to 850-700 mb moisture circulating around the low to our north.
Unimpressive mid level lapse rates and weak isentropic downglide
should smother any significant vertical motion and generally dry
weather is forecast, although a few models (NAM, RAP, and WRF-ARW)
show potential for a spotty shower or two near Georgetown this
afternoon. Forecast highs range from the low to mid 80s, coolest
near the coast with the afternoon seabreeze.
A weak trough axis dangling south of the Virginia low will move
southeastward across the area tonight. Only a wind shift is expected
with the passage of this feature. Under clearing skies lows should
fall into the lower 60s inland with mid to upper 60s along the
coast. There is some potential for some ground fog late tonight,
mainly across inland southeastern North Carolina.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Quiet weather through the short term with a poorly defined pressure
pattern making for light wind, though both afternoons should warm up
for a seabreeze. A shortwave on Thursday and a weaker one on Friday
will be of little consequence other than to perhaps enhance diurnal
cu fields due to moisture being insufficient. Light and spotty QPF
each day in some guidance is a relatively new idea, perhaps those
models giving too much credence to moisture provided by the marine
layer. Should radar echoes develop either day virga or even a
sprinkle seem much more likely than measurable precipitation so the
forecast remains rain-free at this time.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure noses in from the north over the weekend. A few pushes
of minor baroclinicity into the Southeast will merely temper the
late week warmth back closer to climatology and a return of
pressure conditions is expected. As such forcing will be weak
especially given the mean trough axis remains displaced to our west.
Rain chances in the forecast Sunday and Monday, and minor ones at
that, are more tied to a developing coastal trough on the high`s SE
periphery.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions should prevail over the coming 24 hours. Varying
amounts of mid level clouds will dot the sky today in the
cyclonic flow around low pressure to our north. Generally
westerly surface winds will become southerly near the beaches
with today`s seabreeze affecting KCRE and KMYR after 16-17z.
There is a low potential for MVFR to IFR visibility to develop
across southeastern North Carolina affecting KILM and KLBT
tonight mainly after 08z. Confidence is low.
Extended Outlook...Scattered showers and thunderstorms may
develop near the coast Sunday into Sunday night, but with low
confidence.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Low pressure centered over the southern Chesapeake
Bay should slowly weaken today as it wobbles across southeastern
Virginia. Light offshore winds are expected across our portion of
the Carolinas this morning. Across the nearshore waters the
afternoon seabreeze should turn wind directions more southerly but
with little increase in wind speed expected. Light west to southwest
winds this evening should veer more northwesterly late tonight as a
weak trough axis shifts off the coast before sunrise. Seas should
average only 1-2 feet in a combination of 8 second northeasterly
swell plus local wind waves.
Thursday through Sunday... Quiet conditions are expected early in
the period as midweek Chesapeake Bay low has no surface feature move
in behind it. Locally this leaves a poorly defined pressure field
and a shrinking wind chop along a similarly manageable east swell.
No much changes Friday into Friday night. It is on Saturday when
high pressure starts to build in from the north and more typical
wind speeds return albeit out of a seasonally uncommon northeasterly
direction. As this fetch continues on Saturday both wind waves and
swell energy pick up but we should stay below advisory thresholds.
The same may not hold true on Sunday as seas attain 6 ft in height.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...ILM

NWS ILM Office Area Forecast Discussion