Lake Mead Rancheros Arizona Weather Forecast Discussion

101
FXUS65 KVEF 111010
AFDVEF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
300 AM PDT Sat Oct 11 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Scattered showers and storms continue a flood threat for mainly
  Lincoln and Mohave counties today.
* Moisture and precipitation chances get flushed out on Sunday as a
  trough swings through, leaving below-normal temperatures in its
  wake.
* Precipitation chances and gusty winds return mid-week as a more
  traditional cool-season, Pacific system approaches.
&&
.DISCUSSION...through Friday.
Moisture from Priscilla will continues to slowly shift east today as
deep Pacific trough pushes into the western US bringing in a drier
southwest flow. Main band of light to moderate showers is currently
extending across west central Arizona with the back edge expected to
exit Mohave County before sunrise today. We will still be dealing
with ample amounts of moisture with PWats still about 200-250% of
normal across Mohave County with lesser amounts extending westward.
With the hi-res models continuing to indicate moderate instability,
the threat of thunderstorms will still exist this afternoon over
mainly Mohave and Lincoln counties, with lesser chances of Clark and
eastern San Bernardino counties. Decided to cancel the Flood Watch
for southeast San Bernardino County and the Spring Mountains as the
threat of flooding has shifted east. Thunderstorms will still be
possible in these areas this afternoon, but the overall coverage
will be much less.
By Sunday, the aforementioned trough will have swung through the
area, scouring out moisture and leaving precipitation chances below
10% areawide. The drier airmass in its wake will also be notably
cooler, with highs on Sunday roughly 10 degrees lower than Saturday.
These below-normal temperatures are forecast to persist throughout
next week, especially with another trough set to dig along the
Pacific Coast. This system brings precipitation chances (20-50%) to
the western half of our CWA, with chances increasing as you head
west. In eastern Mohave County, the remnants of another tropical
system bring 20-40% PoPs on Monday, but the bulk of precipitation is
expected across central and southern Arizona.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...
A few light rain showers will be possible this morning, but overall
precipitation chances will be much lower today as drier air works
into the region. Light and variable winds will pick up and swing
around to the southwest early this afternoon. Breezy southwesterly
winds will continue to into the early evening when 20-30 knot gusts
will drop off. Eventually winds will swing around to a more
northerly direction overnight as a front moves through the valley.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Scattered mainly light
showers will continue across northwestern Arizona and eastern Nevada
through early morning along with generally light winds. Although
probabilities remain low, there could be pockets of MVFR to IFR
visibility reductions due to patchy fog across southeastern Nevada
and northwestern Arizona. Another round of showers and thunderstorms
is expected across northwestern Arizona this afternoon. Brief
MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible should any storms move directly
over TAF sites this afternoon. Gusty southerly winds will pick up
across southern Nevada and northwestern Arizona late this morning/
early afternoon. Meanwhile gusty westerly winds across the western
Mojave Desert. A front will swing through the area with gusty
northerly to northwesterly in the Owens Valley and across Nye and
Esmeralda Counties this afternoon.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Gorelow/Woods
AVIATION...Gorelow
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NWS VEF Office Area Forecast Discussion