Lake Mary Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

988
FXUS62 KMLB 081052
AFDMLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
652 AM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 331 AM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025
- Dangerous beach and marine conditions will continue, including
  coastal flooding, life-threatening rip currents, and rough surf
  with minor to moderate beach erosion especially near times of
  high tide.
- Rain chances increase Thursday and Friday. A Marginal Risk for
  excessive rainfall exists along the coast each day where soils
  are saturated from recent rainfall.
- A cold front passes central Florida late week, bringing a more
  fall-like airmass late this weekend and into early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 AM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025
Today-Tonight... A band of drier air is present over east central
Florida with PWATs observed around 1.1-1.2" across Cape Canaveral
and the Orlando metro. A slight moisture gradient exists with
deeper moisture across south Florida, and PWATs range closer to
1.3-1.6" along the Treasure Coast and near Lake Okeechobee. Here
resides the best opportunity for isolated shower activity (~20%)
this afternoon. A weak surface trough begins to develop along the
coast tonight, and isolated to scattered coastal showers will be
possible from Cape Canaveral southward though the overnight
period. East winds come down a tad compared to prior days, still
remaining gusty. Daytime highs are forecast in the mid 80s along
the coast, reaching the upper 80s inland. Overnight lows range the
low to mid 70s.
Although seas continue a slow decline, coastal hazards persist. A
Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect, and minor saltwater
flooding may cover docks, sea walls, and low lying lots near times
of high tide. A high risk of life-threatening rip currents continues
at all local beaches.
Thursday-Saturday... Weak surface troughing stretches along the
eastern Florida coast on Thursday, extending from a broad area of
low pressure across the Florida Straits. A cold front is pulled
across central Florida late Friday into Saturday as a closed low
further organizes along the surface trough in the southwest
Atlantic. An unsettled period is forecast, primarily focused along
areas of coastal convergence. Highest rain chances (60%) exist along
the coast from Cape Canaveral southward on Thursday where models
indicate the greatest moisture present. Coverage of coastal showers
and downpours expand northward Thursday night, continuing through
the day period on Friday (60-80%). Although variability in QPF and
widespread rainfall totals continues to exist, localized rainfall
amounts of up to 4" will be possible in training downpours.
Scattered showers wrap around the western side of the low on
Saturday keeping rain chances around 20-40% areawide behind the
front.
High astronomical tides remain present through the period continuing
a string of coastal hazards including coastal flooding. P-ETTS
guidance suggests tidal levels nearing Moderate Flood Stage during
the Thursday morning high tide cycle, further increasing Friday and
Saturday. Should model trends hold, will need to consider upgrading
the current Coastal Flood Advisory to a Coastal Flood Watch or
Coastal Flood Warning with future forecast packages. Swells from the
developing coastal low are forecast to build across the local waters
Saturday reinforcing hazards within the surf zone. A high risk of
rip currents persists late week, and entering the water is not
advised.
High temperatures mostly in the mid 80s on Thursday spread the low
to mid 80s on Friday before widely spreading the low 80s on
Saturday. Morning temperatures in the low to mid 70s Thursday range
the upper 60s to low 70s early this weekend.
Sunday-Tuesday... A dry post-frontal airmass spreads central Florida
on Sunday with no mentionable rain chances forecast through early
next week. A taste of fall is welcomed with lower humidity and high
temperatures in the low to mid 80s. Low temperatures range the low to
mid 60s across the interior and the mid to upper 60s along the
coast. While the weather becomes more pleasant, long period swells
spreading the local waters will maintain coastal hazards including a
high risk of rip currents and minor beach erosion at times of high
tide.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 331 AM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025
Seas up to 7 ft are observed offshore early this morning with a
Small Craft Advisory remaining in effect through 7am. As seas
subside through the remainder of the day, small craft should
exercise caution for seas up to 6 ft in the Gulf Stream. East-
northeast winds are forecast near 15 kts across the local waters
today. Winds and seas increase Thursday as a cold front approaches
from the northwest, eventually passing the waters late Friday. East-
northeast winds increase locally to 20-25 kts across the Volusia
waters Thursday night, persisting into Friday. A push of 20-25 kt
northerly winds spread the local waters behind the front Friday
night into Saturday while lower wind speeds 15-20 kts may be
maintained along the Treasure Coast. Seas begin building southward
across the waters Thursday night becoming 5-6 ft nearshore and 6-9
ft offshore on Friday. Seas further peak 8-11 ft offshore Saturday
night, gradually subsiding into early next week. Isolated to
scattered onshore-moving showers are forecast today becoming
unsettled with increasing rain chances tonight into late week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 652 AM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025
VFR conditions generally forecast today into tonight. Mostly dry
conditions are forecast today, but isolated showers will still be
possible, mainly pushing onshore along the coast this morning, and
continuing to move onshore the Treasure Coast and inland this
afternoon. A storm or two may also develop this afternoon, mainly
along and inland of the Treasure Coast, but chances too low to
mention in the TAFs at this time. For now carrying VCSH at coastal
terminals through 15Z and continuing VCSH through the remainder of
the TAF period for KVRB-KSUA. Brief IFR/MVFR conditions will be
possible with any showers or stray storm, but rain chances too low
(~10-20%) to add any tempo groups to the TAFs.
E/NE winds around 5-10 knots will increase to 10-15 knots in the
late morning/afternoon with some higher gusts up to 18-20 knots
still forecast, mainly along coastal locations south of the Cape.
E/NE winds then diminish back to 5-10 knots this evening.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  85  74  84  73 /  20  20  50  70
MCO  88  73  86  73 /  10  10  40  40
MLB  86  76  85  74 /  20  30  50  60
VRB  87  75  85  74 /  20  40  60  60
LEE  89  72  86  71 /  10  10  30  30
SFB  88  73  85  73 /  10  10  50  50
ORL  88  74  85  73 /  10  10  40  40
FPR  87  75  85  74 /  20  40  60  60
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for FLZ141-154-
     159-164-347-447-647-747.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ570-572-
     575.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Law
AVIATION...Weitlich

NWS MLB Office Area Forecast Discussion