Lake Dallas Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

017
FXUS64 KFWD 081853
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
153 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025
...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated rain showers are possible today with coverage of 10%
  or less.
- Warm and mostly dry weather will continue into next week with
  temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today through Thursday Afternoon/
There is not much change from the previous forecast as upper-
level ridging continues to dominate the weather across North and
Central Texas today and tomorrow. The stalled frontal boundary is
currently draped across from SW-NE across the western half of the
CWA and will linger in this area the rest of this afternoon.
Afternoon highs will be able to reach into the 80s and 90s,
remaining 5-10 degrees above seasonal normals. By late afternoon,
there may be some diurnally-driven showers near and south of this
boundary where better moisture is located and surface wind fields
have better convergence signals. The upper level ridging will
keep coverage very limited, and have kept 10% PoPs east of I-35
for this afternoon. Any shower will wane with the loss of daytime
heating, with a tranquil night in store.
Tomorrow, will be another warm day. A shortwave disturbance will
transit around the ridge to our east, sending its attendant front
south and west towards East Texas. Unfortunately, this backdoor
front will not be the "fall cold front" most of us are wanting.
The front should begin to edge into our East Texas counties over
the afternoon, allowing a couple degrees to be shaved off of high
temperatures. Highs will range from the low-mid 80s in the
northeast to the mid 80s-low 90s elsewhere.
Prater
&&
.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Thursday Evening Onward/
The front will continue to push further into the region on
Friday, resulting in a similar afternoon temperature gradient to
Thursday before becoming more diffuse by the weekend. With the
continued lack of rain and drier air behind the front, initial
fire activity may increase for areas west of I-35, so make sure
to take caution! Early next week, a shortwave disturbance will
round the apex of the ridge, but any rain from this will likely
stay to our north and west. Otherwise, through the rest of the
period upper-level ridging will continue to dominate our day-to-
day weather, with warm temperatures and rain-free conditions
persisting.
Prater
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/
Northeasterly winds will prevail through the rest of this
afternoon and evening at all of the TAF sites, with diurnal
cumulus and streaming high cirrus expected to continue. Very
isolated showers are possible today, but coverage remains too
spotty and isolated to include in the TAF at this time. Winds
will eventually settle more E-ENE (varying between 060-100) after
06Z, and will linger there through the rest of the period. There
may be more northeasterly winds tomorrow afternoon, but guidance
returns the easterly component tomorrow evening.
Prater
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    89  67  87  63  86 /   5   5   5   0   0
Waco                91  67  89  61  87 /  10   5   5   0   0
Paris               86  62  83  56  83 /  10   5   5   0   0
Denton              88  62  86  57  85 /   5   5   5   0   0
McKinney            88  63  86  57  85 /  10   5   5   0   0
Dallas              91  67  88  63  87 /  10   5   5   0   0
Terrell             90  63  86  56  85 /  10   5   5   0   0
Corsicana           92  67  88  60  87 /  10   5   5   0   0
Temple              91  65  89  60  88 /   5   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       90  64  89  59  89 /   0   5   5   0   0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion