Lake Creek Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

756
FXUS64 KFWD 092230
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
530 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025
...New Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- An elevated grass fire threat will be present for areas near
  and west of I-35 on Sunday.
- Warm and rain-free weather will continue into next week with
  temperatures 5 to 15 degrees above normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /Issued 131 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025/
/Today through Friday Afternoon/
The rest of this week will remain warm and dry as upper-level
ridging retains dominion over North and Central Texas` weather
pattern. A shortwave disturbance rounding the eastern periphery
of the ridge into the Deep South is currently shunting a backdoor
front south and westward towards East Texas, mainly characterized
by lower dewpoints and east-northeast winds. This front will
quietly slide further into our area the rest of the day. With
only light winds and no real temperature drop behind the boundary,
expect afternoon highs to peak in the mid 80s to low 90s under
mostly sunny skies. The front will eventually stall across North
and Central Texas tomorrow before becoming more diffuse over the
weekend. Tomorrow afternoon will pretty much be a wash, rinse,
and repeat of today as high temperatures once again peak in the
mid 80s and low 90s.
Prater
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 131 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025/
/Thursday Friday Onward/
While upper-level ridging keeps things warm and dry this weekend,
a lee-side surface low will form to our northwest, which will
tighten the surface pressure gradient and increase wind speeds.
With lower humidity both Saturday and Sunday afternoons,
increasingly dried fuels, and continued abnormally warm
temperatures, these increased wind speeds will allow for an
increased concern for fire weather for areas mainly near and west
of I-35. This is particularly true for Sunday afternoon when wind
speeds reach 10-15 mph with gusts up to 20-25 mph.
A digging shortwave well to our northwest will eject from the
main trough located over the western CONUS early in the week,
sending a cold front south. Unfortunately, this front will likely
stall before it makes it to our area, with any accompanying rain
chances remaining to our north. Otherwise ridging will remain
planted across the Southern Plains throughout next week, keeping
the warm and dry conditions in place.
Prater
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/
A surface ridge stretching from the Ohio Valley to Northeast Texas
will keep light east winds going through Friday. Meanwhile, a
ridge aloft will remain anchored over Texas, maintaining tranquil
aviation weather across the region. A thin layer of smoke from the
western wildfires may affect slant range visibility at times, but
conditions will remain VFR area-wide.
30
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    64  87  64  89  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                62  88  60  87  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               57  83  58  85  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              58  86  58  88  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            58  85  59  88  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              64  88  65  90  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             58  86  58  87  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           62  88  61  89  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              61  88  58  89  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       60  90  58  91  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion