Lake City Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

194
FXUS65 KGJT 122324
AFDGJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
524 PM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Another round of highly anomalous moisture from TD Raymond
  moves up from the south Monday into Tuesday.
- A Flood Watch remains in effect for the southern San Juans and
  adjacent valleys. Total rainfall amounts in that area are 1-2
  inches with locally higher amounts upwards of 3-4 inches
  possible.
- Unsettled weather continues for much of the week as another
  system moves in from the west bringing more showers and storms
  to eastern Utah and western Colorado.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 303 PM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025
The cold front has exited the region allowing for drier air to
filter in from the west. As a result temperatures are expected to
run cooler today compared to yesterday. This break from precip will
be shorted lived as another low pressure drops southward along the
West Coast causing flow to shift back to the south. The moisture
that was pushed south by the cold front will advect back northward
as a result of the flow shift. This moisture has roots back to
tropical storm Raymond, so PWAT values are over 200% of normal once
again. Values approaching 350% of normal will filter into the
southern San Juans starting late tonight and continuing through
Tuesday, and possibly Wednesday. This is where a Flood Watch is in
effect until noon Tuesday. Tomorrow morning expect showers and
storms to move in from the south spreading to the northern CWA by
the afternoon. Moderate to heavy rainfall rates are possible, so any
locations that received several inches of rain from this last event
could experience localized flash flooding. Tomorrow night the main
low continues tracking over the West Coast keeping the southwest
moist flow in our region so training and multiple rounds of showers
is expected into Tuesday morning. Snow levels for this event are
expected to start around 10-13 kft so there could be minor
accumulation at pass level Monday morning. Through out the day
warm advection should cause those snow levels to rise generally
above 12 kft.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 303 PM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025
Moisture from the remnants of TS Raymond will be in place
through Tuesday morning with showers continuing through noon
with showers lessening in intensity and QPF amounts dropping off
quite a bit by Tuesday afternoon, although scattered showers
will still remain over the high terrain. Storm total QPF at this
time is indicating potential for 1 to 2 inches for the southern
valleys included in the watch and upwards of 3 to 4 inches of
precipitation over the San Juan mountains possible starting
tonight through Tuesday morning, so Monday is going to be
another soaker for the San Juans especially after being already
saturated from previous rainfall from TS Priscilla. The Flood
Watch remains in effect from Monday morning through noon Tuesday
including the southwest San Juan Mountains, San Juan River
Basin and Animas River Basin.
Our CWA will be positioned between a deep low pressure trough
over California and high pressure over Texas. This low pressure
trough will swing further east and track over the Great Basin
during the day on Tuesday and enter Utah by Wednesday. This will
help push the direct moisture plume from TS Raymond eastward,
but not completely vacate the moisture as we will still see some
remnant pockets of 100 to 200 percent of normal PWAT anomalies
across the area through Wednesday before the trough sweeps
across the area Wednesday night into Thursday. The pressure
gradient will tighten though ahead of this trough Tuesday
afternoon through Wednesday with H7 winds of 30 to 40 kts. So
Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon could be breezy to windy across
the area with gusts potentially 30 to 40 mph in some locations.
So, we will see scattered afternoon convection favoring the high
terrain each day with the best chances arriving Wednesday
evening into Thursday with the passage of the trough.
Temperatures warm to 5 degrees above normal before dropping to
10 degrees below normal with the trough passage by Thursday.
Snow levels also drop to around 7kft to 8kft so snow is possible
in the high country but amounts appear light at this time. We
will have to keep an eye on potential for freezing temperatures
across some valley locations Thursday night into Friday morning,
especially the northern valleys and the southern valleys as
lows look to drop into the upper 20s. Freezing temperatures
could be seen in some higher valleys in central portions as well
so something to look at as we get closer. Precipitation comes
to an end by Thursday afternoon as much drier air moves in
behind this trough and high pressure builds back into the region
Friday into the weekend, finally cutting off any potential
tropical moisture tap.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 521 PM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025
Mostly clear skies will be in control for the next 6-12 hours,
then clouds will increase from south to north. Showers will
begin filling in after 12z, with KDRO and KTEX the first to be
impacted. These showers will be heavy at times, leading to
reductions to visibility. VFR conditions will prevail through
12z, then periods of MVFR to IFR conditions will occur after
12z, becoming more common after 18z. Ceilings will be above
breakpoints for the majority of the period, but KASE, KEGE, and
KRIL will see ceilings approach ILS breakpoints after 06z, and
additional terminals, including KTEX and KDRO, will see ceilings
drop below breakpoints after 12z.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 303 PM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025
The amount of precipitation some areas have received over the
past few days has been exceedingly impressive to say the least.
Looking at 72 hour totals (unofficially), most areas across the
San Juans received between 2 to 4 inches of rainfall with a few
spots reaching just over 5 inches. 1 to 2 inches was common
across central portions of Colorado with anywhere from a half to
1 inch for the northern valleys. Most of eastern Utah received
the same, a half to 1 inch of rain.
The Flood Watch continues for portions of the San Juans and
southern valleys as TD Raymond brings another surge of moisture
from the south Monday into Tuesday. Soil moisture in the watch
area is very high due to all of the rain therefore runoff will
be more efficient for this round. The estimated rainfall totals
did increase with this latest forecast package, so there is a
chance would could see similar impacts.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...Flood Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday morning for
     COZ019-022-023.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KJS
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...TGJT
HYDROLOGY...TGJT

NWS GJT Office Area Forecast Discussion