Krebs, Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

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FXUS64 KTSA 290518
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1218 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1212 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
- Mostly dry weather with above normal temperatures this week.
- Low chances for thunderstorms over portions of northeast Oklahoma
Saturday evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
For the past several mornings, there has been some patchy fog mainly
in the valleys. Models generally show a weaker fog signal tonight
compared to last night, but will lean toward persistence and insert
some patchy fog in valley areas. Morning lows have been on the cool
side at the valley sites, so some blend of CONSMOS will be used.
Expect partly to mostly sunny skies during the day on Sunday with an
increase in high cloud from the west. Low level thermal fields are
again trending cooler, so expect highs a degree or two below highs
yesterday.
Lacy
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
The current stretch of quiet weather is likely to continue for much
of this week. An omega block is in place, with ridging aloft and at
the surface. The most notable change in the near term will be an
increase in high cloud Monday night into Tuesday as the upper trough
over the Southwest shifts east. Went closer to NBM for overnight
lows and removed fog mention. At least partly because of this, high
temps will trend downward into Tuesday. The upper trough is expected
to weaken and not have an impact, aside from eventually clearing out
the high cloud. With skies clearing by Tuesday night, the data does
have a stronger fog signal that night. A piece of energy wrapping
around the western side of upper troughing over the Southeast could
bring an isolated storm by Thursday afternoon to western Arkansas,
but chances are too low to mention in forecast at this point. High
temps will trend back upward to close out the week, and will remain
above average for this time of year.
A pattern change is expected by the weekend as the omega block
breaks down and a western CONUS trough becomes established. The
initial upper trough is expected to eject into the Plains by next
weekend, but the track of the system differs between the EC and GFS.
The more likely scenarios in the ensemble data, as well as the GFS,
suggest keeping the wave north of the area and the forecast dry for
the most part. The wave would make its closest approach by Saturday
evening, where ensemble data, the 12Z EC and the 01Z NBM show at
least slight chances for rain/storms.
Yesterday it was suggested that this broad western CONUS trough
would advance east across the country in week 2, but deterministic
solutions and the more likely ensemble scenarios have slowed this
down, keeping troughing over the West. This makes the prospects of a
fall-like cold front more uncertain. At this time, there is no light
at the end of this proverbial tunnel of above normal temperatures.
Lacy
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with high clouds
increasing from the west late. Winds will be light southeast to
east this afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   85  64  85  62 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   86  65  86  64 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   87  63  86  59 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   84  58  84  56 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   84  57  83  57 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   82  58  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   84  63  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   84  60  83  58 /   0   0   0   0
F10   85  62  85  58 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   84  65  84  61 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...24

NWS TSA Office Area Forecast Discussion