Kingston Springs, Tennessee Weather Forecast Discussion

019
FXUS64 KOHX 231727
AFDOHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1227 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1224 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
- Medium to high rain and thunderstorm chances through Thursday.
  Low threat for severe storms, a few could produce strong winds
  and heavy downpours.
- Minor flooding from heavy rain possible.
- Warm and dry weather returns Friday and continues through next
  week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1103 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
A few scattered showers and thunderstorms linger this afternoon
as our mid-level trough remains overhead. Current satellite
imagery is showing some breaks in cloud cover over the CWA as our
morning storms exit Middle TN to the south. Our daytime heating
is running a little behind schedule due to all the clouds and rain
we saw this morning. Latest CAMs show minimal storm development
through the afternoon, likely due to the delay in solar heating.
That said, there will be some storms that manage to develop due to
our marginal environment. Latest analysis shows mixed layer CAPE
between 500-1000 J/kg, mid-level lapse rates around 6 C/km, and
bulk shear around 30 kts. Some storms will have the potential to
become strong, producing heavy rainfall, strong winds, and
lightning. Not expecting any widespread severe activity through
the afternoon.
Tonight, more storms move in Middle TN with a warm front passage.
Latest CAMs have been struggling with storms progression, but
latest few runs are narrowing down on storms mowing into our NW
after 02z and continuing into Wednesday morning. These storms
will have a wind threat, with potential gusts between 40-60 mph
with strongest cells. Additionally, with saturated soils in place,
we will have to monitor the potentially for any localized
flooding from heavy rainfall as these storms move through. PWATs
were sitting around 1.59 inches at this mornings balloon launch,
and are forecasted to be around 1.90 inches tonight.
Wednesday afternoon looks to offer the best chance for potential
severe storms with the trailing cold front and a more favorable
environment. Mid-level flow will be increasing and should offer
better lift to maintain storms.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1103 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Storm continue through early Thursday morning as our frontal
boundary moves through the area. Post frontal showers will likely
linger around Thursday morning, before conditions dry out through
Friday. A dry pattern then takes hold as high pressure builds
over the region. This will bring clearing skies and warm
temperatures back to Middle TN through next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
MVFR cigs will rise to VFR by 21z. There will be some lingering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms around through the
afternoon but overall we will remain dry. Showers and
thunderstorms become more widespread again after 00z and will
continue through the night into tomorrow morning. Periods of
MVFR/IFR in showers and thunderstorms. MVFR cigs build in
overnight after 08z. Southerly winds up to 8 knots becoming more
southwest overnight up to 12 knots.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      71  84  67  82 /  60  70  90  50
Clarksville    69  84  65  81 /  80  80  60  40
Crossville     64  77  63  75 /  40  70 100  70
Columbia       68  82  66  81 /  40  80  90  50
Cookeville     66  79  65  76 /  40  80 100  60
Jamestown      65  77  64  75 /  50  80  90  70
Lawrenceburg   67  81  65  80 /  30  70  70  50
Murfreesboro   69  82  67  81 /  40  70  90  50
Waverly        67  80  64  78 /  70  80  80  40
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cravens
LONG TERM....Cravens
AVIATION.....Mueller

NWS OHX Office Area Forecast Discussion