Ketchikan, Alaska Weather Forecast Discussion

367
FXAK67 PAJK 290619
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1019 PM AKDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.UPDATE...06z TAF Update. Stalled moisture band is offshore the
panhandle that will persist in place overnight, with the southern
portion (south of Sitka ) begins to move onshore the coastal areas
from Prince of Wales Island to Baranof Island Monday morning.
Good ceilings and Visibilities across the panhandle for tonight
and Monday.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 412 pm AKDT Sun 28 Sept...
.SHORT TERM...A vertically stacked low in the Gulf continues to
bring showers offshore and along the outer coast. Slight chances
for thunderstorms remain into this evening for the Gulf further
offshore. The low will begin to weaken tonight and move to the
southeast into Monday, diminishing some of the winds across the
northern and central panhandle and Gulf alike as it moves further
away from the coastline.
Another round of showers will move from south to north tomorrow,
beginning along the coast of POW early tomorrow morning with
chances increasing across the panhandle throughout the day. The
chances remain highest for the southern and central panhandle,
though chances for the northern panhandle have increased from
earlier guidance. Showers will largely bring higher rainfall
amounts for POW, Ketchikan, and Annette Island as occasional
moderate showers move throughout the day. The southern panhandle
is expected to receive 24 hour rainfall totals of between 0.3 and
0.7 inches. The rest of the panhandle will see lighter showers,
with 24 hour totals between 0.10 and 0.30 inches, with the lowest
amounts in the northern panhandle. Chances for rain will quickly
diminish into Tuesday for the central and northern panhandle,
lasting longest in the far southern panhandle. The northern
panhandle will also begin to see some clearer skies into Tuesday
morning, starting with the NE Gulf Coast around Yakutat.
.LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Friday/...
Key Messages:
- Lingering precip moves out through Tuesday
- Skies clear out into Wednesday
- Next system moves in from the northwest Thursday
Details: The weakening low pressure system in the gulf will have
moved south of the panhandle by Tuesday morning, taking
precipitation and cloud cover with it. Skies will start clearing
from the northwest to the southeast overnight, lingering over the
southernmost areas of the panhandle until Wednesday. Light showers
will be possible for those areas, with the southeasterly flow
still directing remaining moisture into the southern panhandle as
the low continues to move south. High pressure will start building
over interior Alaska and the Yukon Territory through this time,
strengthening a ridge building over the panhandle. By Wednesday,
precipitation and cloud cover will have largely moved out of the
panhandle allowing for partly cloudy to mostly sunny conditions to
prevail. Clouds begin to move back in proceeding another system
jumping into the northern gulf early Thursday morning. An area of
deep upper level shortwave troughing helps to steer a disorganized
low into the northern outer coast through Thursday, bringing
light rain amounts back into the panhandle Thursday afternoon into
Friday. There is still a bit of spread on the exact timing and
intensity of this next system, though it is currently looking to
only bring around an inch or less to a majority of the panhandle.
The exception to this will be Yakutat, looking to receive between
1 and 2 inches as the front reaches them first. Precipitation
looks to continue through the longer term, though there may be a
few short breaks between systems.
As ridging develops Tuesday, winds will turn offshore and weaken
for a majority of the inner channels. A tightening N/S pressure
gradient north of the panhandle begins to tighten with this
ridging, increasing outflow winds down Lynn Canal into Wednesday.
Southerly flow associated with the system moving in Thursday will
turn flow back onshore by the afternoon. Highs will be in the 50s,
increasing slightly for Wednesday. The southern panhandle will
most likely breach the 60s with extra heating from the sun. Lows
will be in the 40s, with select areas of the panhandle dipping
into the high 30s.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR across the panhandle this afternoon. The only
exception to that is offshore of the panhandle where a front has
stalled with rain and clouds giving MVFR conditions at times. That
front is expected to stay offshore for the most part through
Monday morning with VFR conditions for most areas of the panhandle
as a result. The southern end of the front is expected to pivot
into the southern panhandle starting Monday morning bringing some
rain with it. Expect visibility to stay greater then 6 miles but
ceilings may briefly drop to MVFR at times especially in the
afternoon from Frederick Sound Southward. As for winds, most
surface winds are 15 kt or less across the panhandle with higher
winds offshore with the front. Those winds are expected to stay
offshore for the most part, but some southerly 15 kt winds may
creep into the southern panhandle south of Sumner Strait as the
front pivots into that area Monday afternoon. Both rain and wind
will them diminish into Tuesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Inner Channels: Overall a diminishing trend in winds across the
inner channels as the low weakens and moves southward, decreasing
the pressure gradient along the channels. The areas with winds
remaining increased into tomorrow are Cape Spencer and the Cross
Sound area, with a fresh easterly breeze (17-20 kt) that will last
through midday tomorrow before it begins to diminish with the E-W
gradient decreasing. Point Couverden continues to see a fresh to
strong breeze this evening (20-24 kt) and has turned northerly,
which will gradually diminish to 15 kt tonight into tomorrow
morning. As the low moves southward, winds will begin to shift in
Chatham and Clarence Strait to become more northerly into Tuesday
before picking up to a fresh breeze by Tuesday morning. Lynn Canal
will begin to see a moderate to fresh northerly breeze tonight
before diminishing tomorrow.
Outside Waters: Near gale force winds along the outer coastline
will diminish into this evening to a fresh to strong breeze (20-25
kt) late tonight into tomorrow. The northern Gulf will continue
to see this diminishing trend in winds as the low moves south,
while a moderate to fresh breeze will remain in the southeastern
Gulf waters, the strongest being to the west of Haida Gwaii
tomorrow night as the winds shift from southeasterly to more
northeasterly into Tuesday. Seas will decrease from 10 to 14 ft
tonight to 5 to 8 ft tomorrow. Easterly swell of 5 to 8 ft
becoming more southerly and 1 to 3 ft by tomorrow night. Dominant
wave period of 9 to 12 seconds along the southeast Gulf coast
expected.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-
     672.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Contino
LONG TERM...ZTK
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...Contino
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NWS AJK Office Area Forecast Discussion