Kennedyville, Maryland Weather Forecast Discussion

555
FXUS61 KPHI 221020
AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
620 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be shifting offshore today. A warm front
will pass through the region tonight into Tuesday, followed by
a cold front gradually tracking through the area on Wednesday.
This front will then stall over the Mid-Atlantic region through
the end of the week into next weekend, causing a period of
unsettled weather.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
For today, our high pressure system continues to shift east but
we still have some of the influence from the high pressure
system across the area. This means we stay dry today. We have
some low clouds this morning that start to mix out through the
morning hours. We then become mostly sunny with just some high
clouds around. Temperatures today are in the 70s. Humidity
levels do start to increase throughout the day which is due to
the wind turning more out of the south which will start to usher
in warm moist air into the region.
Overnight, we continue to see moisture enter the area which
leads to building cloud cover. We may even start to see the
potential for an isolated shower in our very NW zones which have
a slight chance for showers tonight. Most stay dry overnight.
Lows tonight are in the mid 50s to low 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A warm front will lift thru the region Tuesday, providing a
warming trend, if only briefly. Clouds will mix with sunshine
and highs should reach the 80s across most of the region, the
exceptions being the usual suspects... Poconos and shore.
An approaching cold front and shortwave then bring the risk for
showers and even a few thunderstorms late Tuesday into Tuesday
night, with best risk being northwest of I-95. A marginal severe
risk can`t be ruled out just yet, but not looking at anything
more than that. The front likely stalls to our northwest so
we`ll probably struggle to get much activity southeast of I-95.
Lows Tuesday night will be in the 60s for most.
While the front will be stalled fairly close by, it should still
be north of most of the region, so we should remain relatively
warm for Wednesday with highs for most near or above 80 once
again, though probably a little cooler than Tuesday. Another
approaching shortwave may then bring another risk of showers and
even a few t-storms, though with slightly cooler temps and thus,
less instability, the risk of any severe weather looks a little
lower than Tuesday.
The cold front slides a bit further south finally Wednesday
night, and with the passing shortwave as well, the risk of
showers should rise. Lows again, mostly in the 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The cold front stalls somewhere in our area thru most of the
long term. One wave of low pressure may ride northeast along the
boundary later Thursday into early Friday, with another over the
weekend, so the risk of showers will remain elevated, with the
best chance right now appearing to be Thursday night. Some
guidance even puts down a substantial amount of rain, so we`ll
have to keep an eye on that potential, but recent dryness likely
limits widespread flood potential. Temps will cool a bit with
highs mostly 70s and lows mostly 60s...warmest south, coolest
northwest.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Today...VFR. A tempo group for KABE/KRDG to account for MVFR
ceilings being possible goes until 14Z. Some of the I-95
terminals are also seeing low ceilings this morning but there is
not enough confidence to add any tempo groups. VFR otherwise and
that will be the trend through the morning. South/southeast
winds this morning become more southerly in the afternoon and
evening, around 5-10 kt. High confidence in prevailing VFR
through the day, moderate confidence on any early morning
restrictions.
Tonight...Prevailing VFR. Ceilings lower from west to east.
There is currently not enough confidence in ceilings getting to
MVFR to include any restrictions. Winds will be out of the
south at 5 knots or less. Moderate confidence.
Outlook...
VFR conditions should prevail Tuesday thru Wednesday, with
scattered showers possibly reducing conditions below VFR on
occasion. Wednesday night thru Friday, IFR conditions
accompanied by more frequent showers become more likely.
&&
.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect until 2 PM today for the
coastal waters extending from Manasquan Inlet to Fenwick Island
mainly due to seas around 5 feet. Elsewhere, no marine headlines
are in effect.
Northeast winds will continue this morning, before shifting to
east-southeast around 5-10 kt in the afternoon. Seas of 3-5
feet expected through today. Fair weather.
Tonight...Sub-SCA conditions expected with fair weather.
Outlook...
Marginal SCA conditions possible Tuesday and Tuesday night on
the ocean due to waves possibly reaching 5 feet. Beyond Tuesday
night, wave heights likely subside slightly. Winds through the
period look below SCA levels, but showers will become possible
Tuesday night thru Friday, with the best chance being Thursday
night.
Rip Currents...
For today, northeast winds turn to the southeast, generally
less than 10 mph with breaking waves of 3 to 4 feet. Easterly
swells associated with offshore Hurricane Gabrielle will build
to 3 to 4 feet with a 11 to 12 second period. As a result,
there is a HIGH risk for the development of dangerous and life
threatening rip currents for the Jersey Shore and Delaware
Beaches.
On Tuesday, winds turn more southerly at 10 to 15 mph with
breaking waves 2-4 feet. Southeast swells continue with a 10 to
12 second period. As a result, there is a HIGH risk for the
development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents for
the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches.
For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...High Risk for Rip Currents through Tuesday evening for NJZ014-
     024>026.
DE...High Risk for Rip Currents through Tuesday evening for DEZ004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
     ANZ451>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Guzzo/RCM
NEAR TERM...Guzzo
SHORT TERM...RCM
LONG TERM...RCM
AVIATION...Guzzo/RCM
MARINE...Guzzo/RCM

NWS PHI Office Area Forecast Discussion