Junction, West Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

641
FXUS61 KLWX 280115
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
915 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak area of low pressure will move parallel to the Mid-Atlantic
coast along a stalled out front through early Sunday. High pressure
will then build southward from eastern Canada through much of next
week. Meanwhile, Tropical Depression Nine near the Bahamas is
expected to approach the Southeast coast early next week before
stalling then drifting out to sea through mid week. A strong cold
front will track across the area by the middle of next week bringing
cooler and drier weather.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper troughing is centered just to our west this evening over
the Appalachians. At the surface, a weak area of low pressure
has formed along a stalled frontal boundary just to our
southeast across southeastern Virginia. This area of low
pressure will track northeastward along the front out into the
Atlantic tonight while the upper trough axis simultaneously
moves overhead. Showers are ongoing across the area this
evening, with the highest coverage currently located to the east
of the Blue Ridge. These showers will gradually wind down from
west to east overnight, but residual low clouds will remain in
place. Those low clouds may start to break up just prior to
daybreak to the west of the Blue Ridge, and potentially across
Central Virginia as well. If these clouds are able to clear out
prior to sunrise, fog (some of it locally dense) will likely
form given saturated low-levels and weak winds. The cloud cover
will act to keep temperatures up overnight, with lows generally
in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will build north of the region Sunday through
early Monday keeping generally fair and dry weather, except for
some morning low clouds and/or fog.
Rain or showers associated with Tropical Depression Nine may
start reaching central Virginia by daybreak Tuesday, but recent
model trends continue to keep most precip further south and
more offshore, lessening the risk of excessive rainfall locally.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Some lingering mid-level energy swirling around the Mid-
Atlantic region could throw a few showers our way on Tuesday,
primarily along and south of I-64. Elsewhere, high pressure
will provide dry conditions with some low and mid-level clouds
and a few peeks of sunshine. Temperatures will be near average.
On Wednesday, high pressure will hold strong to allow for dry
conditions to continue and temperatures to remain near average.
As for Thursday and Friday, high pressure once again will be
dominant and an additional surge of cool and dry air from the north
will push into the region on a light north to northeast wind.
Temperatures will be below average both days.
One potential caveat to the long term forecast is the future
track of what is now Tropical Depression Nine. Although it is
most likely to stay well to our south locally, shifts in the
track are possible. The longer range forecast is of lower than
usual confidence since the system is expected to slow and stall
just off the coast. Visit hurricanes.gov for more information.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Lower ceilings have struggled to make northward progress this
evening as they encounter drier air in place to the north. IFR
ceilings have been removed from all of the TAFs except CHO, and
MVFR ceilings may even struggle to materialize in some spots.
Rain should wind down from west to east overnight, giving way to
dry conditions by daybreak tomorrow.
Other than early morning low clouds/fog, VFR is then expected
Sunday through Monday night. More rain chances arrive for KCHO
by early on Tuesday, but flight restrictions appear unlikely at
this time. Winds will remain generally N to E and light.
VFR conditions Tuesday through Wednesday night. Winds north 5 to 10
knots Tuesday and Tuesday night. Winds northeast 10 knots Wednesday
and Wednesday night.
&&
.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the southernmost
waters this evening through mid-morning tomorrow within
northeasterly flow as an area of low pressure passes to our
south. SCAs go into effect for the Middle Tidal Potomac and
then northward on the Bay up to the Bay Bridge later tonight and
continue through mid- morning tomorrow. SCA conditions are also
possible across the southern waters late Mon night/early Tuesday
within easterly flow. Otherwise, rain winds down after
midnight with dry conditions then expected through Monday.
Winds north 5 to 10 knots Tuesday and Tuesday night. Winds
north to northeast 10 to 15 knots Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Some near SCA gusts are possible over the southern waters by the
middle of next week.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ532-
     533-536-540>542.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ534-537-543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR/DHOF
NEAR TERM...KJP
SHORT TERM...LFR/DHOF
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...LFR/KLW/DHOF/KJP
MARINE...LFR/KLW/DHOF/KJP

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion