Jaroso, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

819
FXUS65 KPUB 020913
AFDPUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
313 AM MDT Thu Oct 2 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Early morning frost is expected across central and southern
  portions of the San Luis Valley.
- Continued warmer than normal temperatures and dry conditions are
  expected for our Thursday.
- Breezy to windy conditions Friday and Saturday as an upper level
  weather system translates across the Rockies.
- Well above seasonal temperatures on Friday with increasing
  coverage of showers and storms Friday night and Saturday over
  the higher terrain.
- Cooler and unsettled weather pattern for the late weekend into
  the middle of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 310 AM MDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Currently...
Water vapor imagery reveals dry air over Colorado early this
morning, with RGB imagery showing completely clear skies over the
state as well. Our incoming low is still sitting off offshore over
the Pacific Northwest. As of 1 AM, temperatures are mild and remain
several degrees warmer than normal for this time of year with most
plains locations still in the 50s and 60s. The San Luis Valley will
once again see patchy early morning frost and near freezing
temperatures around sunrise. As of 1 AM, temperatures in the mid to
upper 30s were observed across the valley.
Today and Tonight...
Models continue to strengthen the trough out west throughout the day
today, keeping the upper low offshore through much of this forecast
period. This will increase southwest aloft over southeast Colorado,
though noticeable changes in our sensible weather are not
anticipated for today. We`ll see conditions that will be much the
same as yesterday for most locations, with above normal high
temperatures, mostly sunny skies, any mainly weak diurnally driven
wind patterns. High temperatures look to climb back into the middle
and upper 80s for most of the plains, with far eastern portions of
the lower Arkansas River Valley possibly hitting 90 near Lamar. The
Pikes Peak region, Middle Arkansas River Valley, and San Luis
Valley are expected to see highs closer to middle and upper 70s.
Many locations will be around 6 to 8 degrees warmer than normal
today. As southwest flow aloft continues to increase through
the overnight hours, increased mixing and warmer temperatures
are expected for the high country tonight than what we`ve seen
the past several nights. The San Luis Valley looks to remain in
the mid 30s or warmer tonight, with lows in the 50s across much
of the plains.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 310 AM MDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Latest model data supports increasing southwest flow aloft across
the Rockies on Friday, as a broad upper trough across the West Coast
digs into the Great Basin. Increasing southwest flow allows for breezy
conditions over and near the higher terrain on Friday, with induced
lee  troughing bringing breezy southerly winds across the plains.
The breezy and dry conditions will lead to elevated fire danger across
the area on Friday, though areas with the strongest winds and driest
conditions will not be juxtaposed, limiting the development of critical
fire weather conditions. Temperatures are expected to be well above
seasonal levels as well, with highs in the 80s to lower 90s expected
across the plains, and in the 60s and 70s across the higher terrain.
Record high temperatures for Friday October 3rd are 79F at ALS in 2024,
87F at COS in 1935, and 94F at PUB in 2018.
Friday night-Saturday night...The broad Pacific trough across the Great
Basin remains progged to lift out across the Rockies on Saturday, with
increasing moisture and uvv within the southwest flow bringing increasing
coverage of showers and a few possible embedded thunderstorms to the higher
terrain along and west of the ContDvd Friday night and Saturday. Chances
of precipitation spread east through the day Saturday, as the system`s front
translates across across south central and southeast Colorado Saturday
afternoon. Breezy to windy southerly winds across the region early Saturday
become more westerly and remain gusty behind the passing system. This will
keep overnight lows mild Friday night and allow for temperatures to warm
quickly on Saturday into the 70s and 80s across the plains, with mainly 50s
and 60s across the higher terrain, save for 30s and 40s across the peaks.
The best chances of accumulating precipitation remains along the ContDvd
with snow levels remaining relatively high Friday night before falling
through the day Saturday. This will bring some light snow accumulations
across the higher peaks on Saturday. Cooler and much drier air filters into
the region behind the passing system Saturday night, leading to the potential
for aub-freezing temperatures across the higher terrain into early Sunday
morning. We will continue to monitor for the possible issuance of a Freeze
Warning for portions of the San Luis Valley into early Sunday morning.
Sunday-Thursday...Latest model data continues to differ on the timing and
location of secondary energy digging back across the Great Basin, as well
as the amount of available moisture across the region into the beginning of
next week. There is also the potential for subtropical moisture to move into
the Rockies for the middle to end of next week. Latest model data continues
to indicate a cooler airmass, associated with surface high pressure building
south across the High Plains, pushing into eastern Colorado on Sunday, with
this cooler airmass ebbing and flowing across the plains through the middle
of next week. With that said, NBM data keeps temperatures generally below
seasonal levels, along with chances of precipitation areawide into the
middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1129 PM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025
VFR conditions are expected at all three TAF sites, KCOS, KPUB,
and KALS, for the next 24 hours. Winds will be light through
the overnight hours, with gusts to around 20 to 22kt out of the
southeast at both KCOS and KPUB through the afternoon hours.
There is a very low end chance for some patchy fog around the
San Luis Valley tonight into early Thursday morning which could
impact KALS, though chances were too low (less than 30%) to
include mention in the TAF at this time.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 9 AM MDT this morning for COZ070-071.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...EHR

NWS PUB Office Area Forecast Discussion