Jacksonville Ohio Weather Forecast Discussion

986
FXUS61 KRLX 101016
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
616 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will provide dry and cool conditions through Saturday.
The next (low) chance for precipitation arrives late in the weekend
as a coastal low interacts with a system over the Great Lakes.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 215 AM Friday...
Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories remain in effect for the
mountains and portions of southeast Ohio respectively, with some
additional patchy frost possible bordering these advisories. Clear
skies and light winds are allowing for strong radiational cooling,
with temperatures dropping into the 30s. Some of the typically
colder mountain valleys have already dipped below freezing.
Valley fog is already developing and is expected to become dense in
protected river valleys by daybreak. Increasing southerly flow just
above the surface should keep fog limited to the valleys and will
also lead to a pronounced temperature difference between the ridges
and valleys as the ridges warm into daybreak.
After any morning fog burns off, today will be clear and pleasant
with afternoon high temperatures reaching the lower 70s across the
lowlands. We will mix into a substantially drier layer aloft
(rooted around H850) during the afternoon, resulting in slightly
lower dew points than central guidance suggests, although fire
weather concerns will remain minimal with generally light winds
and the forest floor still sheltered by (thinning) leaves
across much of the lower elevations. Dry conditions continue
tonight with river valley fog developing once again.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 AM Friday...
High pressure remains in control of the weather pattern on Saturday,
resulting in another dry and mild day with highs in the low to mid
70s. Clouds will gradually increase Saturday afternoon and night as
an upper-level trough approaches from the Great Lakes.
Confidence in the forecast decreases late in the weekend. A complex
interaction is expected between the northern stream trough over the
Great Lakes and a developing coastal low pressure system moving up
the eastern seaboard. There remains considerable model variance on
the phasing of these two systems. At present, the most likely
outcome is for the majority of the precipitation to remain east and
north of the forecast area. However, some moisture may wrap around
the coastal low, bringing a slight chance for light rain showers to
the eastern mountains, primarily across Pocahontas and Taylor
County on Sunday. Rainfall amounts, if any, are expected to be
light, with less than a 40 percent chance for even a tenth of an
inch for these locations.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 615 AM Friday...
The long-term period is characterized by a shift to a much quieter
and warmer pattern. The weekend storm systems will exit to the
northeast early Monday, followed by the rapid development of a
strong upper-level ridge over the central United States. This ridge
will dominate the weather pattern through the middle of the week,
promoting dry conditions and a significant warming trend.
Afternoon high temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 70s for
Monday and Tuesday, which is 5 to 10 degrees above normal for mid-
October. Overnight lows will also be mild, generally in the upper
40s to low 50s. The extended outlook from the Climate Prediction
Center supports the continuation of warmer and drier than normal
conditions through the end of the period.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 215 AM Friday...
Fog/low stratus confined immediately to some river valleys will
readily mix out this morning, VFR at all sites by 13-14Z. Some
040-050 clouds may sneak into BKW this morning before
dissipating, but otherwise mainly clear through the period.
Patchy valley fog will be possible again tonight.
Winds will be light and variable early this morning, becoming
southeasterly around 5 to 10 kts during the day.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing dissipation of fog may vary this
morning.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
At least patchy IFR valley fog is possible each morning.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for WVZ039-040-516-
     518>522.
     Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for WVZ523>526.
OH...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ066.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP

NWS RLX Office Area Forecast Discussion