Island Trees, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

638
FXUS61 KOKX 240700
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
300 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary remains stalled across the region today and
into tonight before lifting northward as a warm front late tonight
into early Thursday. A slow moving area of low pressure and cold
front will then impact the region from Thursday through Friday.
Weak high pressure briefly builds into the area Friday night into
Saturday. A second cold front will move across on Sunday,
followed by high pressure for Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A stationary front remains across the region through today and
chances of showers and thunderstorms will remain especially late
morning into the afternoon as instability increases with daytime
heating.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A stalled frontal boundary across the region begins to lift
northward as a warm front late tonight into early Thursday
morning. A weak area of low pressure passes west and north of
the area through Thursday night dragging a cold front across the
area. Chances for showers and possibly thunderstorms continues
tonight into Thursday, and with increasing precipitable water up
to 2 inches and frontal lift periods of moderate to heavy
rainfall will be possible late tonight into Thursday evening.
Local nuisance flooding will be possible and much of the area
is in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall Wednesday into
Thursday. Additional a few thunderstorms could become strong
Thursday as low level shear increases, and gusty winds will be
possible. And all of the region is in a marginal risk for severe
weather. With this potential added gusty winds and heavy
rainfall to the weather Thursday into Thursday evening.
The cold front moves east Friday morning and the chance of
showers diminishes. And the area may be dry dry late day into
the night as weak high pressure builds into the area.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NBM was followed with no changes.
Key Points:
* Another cold front approaches Saturday and moves through on
  Sunday.
* Chances of showers persist late Saturday into Sunday.
* Drier conditions expected late Sunday into the first part of
  next week as high pressure builds back into the region. A
  frontal boundary remains to the south of the region.
* Daytime temperatures will be near to slightly above normal
  Saturday through Tuesday. Nighttime lows will be above normal
  Saturday night through Monday night and return to more normal
  levels Tuesday night.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold front from the north moves into the region late tonight
and becomes stationary across the area on Wednesday.
VFR to start, but MVFR will be possible late tonight - especially
away from the city terminals. Will maintain TEMPO MVFR cigs in the
city during the Weds morning push. Outside an isolated brief shower,
showers and thunderstorms have moved away from the region.
Chance of showers and thunderstorms late afternoon into the evening,
mainly to the north of the NYC and LI terminals.
SW-S winds 10 kt or less will go light and variable late tonight.
Mainly E to SE winds at 10 kt or less for Weds.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
TEMPO MVFR cigs might not occur during the Weds morning push, but it
is still possible for prevailing MVFR cigs.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wednesday night through Saturday: Periods of MVFR or lower with
showers possible. Isold tstms possible at times.
Sunday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Ocean seas remain elevated into this afternoon with long period
swell slowly subsiding. Thereafter, winds and seas remain below
advisory levels across the forecast waters through Sunday
night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Showers and thunderstorms will produce widespread rainfall of
1-2 inches, with locally higher amounts possible, tonight into
Thursday evening. With the potential of brief moderate to heavy
rainfall brief nuisance flooding in urban and poor drainage
locales will be possible across the area. Antecedent conditions
have been notably dry though, so the risk for flash flooding is
low.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A high rip current risk continues into this evening as long
period 4-5 ft SE swell slowly subside. The risk lowers to
moderate for Thursday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ350-
     353.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion