Inyokern, California Weather Forecast Discussion

662
FXUS66 KHNX 230900
AFDHNX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
200 AM PDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Warm trend in temperatures continue Today, with cooling
starting on Wednesday.
2. Precipitation is in store for Central California by Tuesday
across Kern County and the Coastal Range. There is a 5 to 15
percent chance of a tenth of an inch of rain.
3. Widespread and heavy precipitation will move into Central
California on Wednesday as there is a 15 to 35 percent chance
of a tenth of an inch of rain. In addition, there is at least a
5% chance of excessive rainfall across Central California on
Wednesday (and Thursday).
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A complex weather solution evolving in the next 24 to 48 hours
over Central California. A disturbance off the California will
move through the area producing unsettled conditions from this
Tuesday (today) through at least Friday. Ensemble moisture
analysis is showing Monsoonal moisture surging up, but also
surging west and offshore which may limit precipitation today.
At the same time, the ridge pattern thats still in place over
the West will allow for another warm day as afternoon highs
reach into the upper 90s. Probability of Exceedance (PoE) of
reaching 95 degree ranges between 40% to 80% across the San
Joaquin Valley today. As for precipitation, while mean values
along the southwest side of the San Joaquin Valley from Coalinga
to Taft and over to Bakersfield show accumulation of a tenth
(0.10) to a quarter of an inch (0.25). Extreme percentiles
increase the range to a third (0.30) to half of an inch
(0.50)of rain. Thunderstorms are possible today over the region
which may support some of the higher values, but, PoE of
thunderstorms is at 5% to 10% for today.
Wednesday may be a different story on the weather front. While
the trajectory of the upper low may be a bit too offshore for
significant precipitation today, the upper low will turn more
onshore on Wednesday and hence increase the PoE of precipitation
for Wednesday. By Wednesday, 24 hour rain probabilities show
amounts reaching 0.50 (half an inch) with some extreme values
reaching over one inch (near 1.50). Therefore, with
probabilities reaching high values, there is at least a 5%
chance of experiencing excessive rainfall on Wednesday. Ensemble
moisture analysis showing the northward surge of monsoonal
moisture shifting east and more over Central California to
support heavier showers. The northward surge of moisture will
present similar conditions on Thursday as the probability of
excessive rainfall continues. Yet, with the upper low exiting
the area on Thursday, will expect most of the precipitation over
the Sierra Nevada. Even on Friday, the upper low drops toward
Southern California as wrap-around moisture continues to produce
precipitation over the area. The weekend will see a slight rise
in temperatures as lingering moisture produces mountain
convection.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z Update:
A 5-10 percent chance of thunderstorms between 20Z today and
03Z Wednesday will exist across the San Joaquin Valley and
Sierra Nevada. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected for the next
24 hours.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Public/Aviation....Molina
weather.gov/hanford

NWS HNX Office Area Forecast Discussion