571 FXUS63 KDDC 101604 AFDDDCArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1104 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Continued tranquil conditions through this weekend
- Unseasonable temperatures through this weekend
- Low precipitation chances and cooler temperatures into early next week
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.DISCUSSION... Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025
Ridge continues to build across the High Plains this morning, leading to the continuation of the ongoing benign, but warming trend. This more tranquil pattern is likely to continue into this weekend as ridging continues to amplify, but sliding east of the area by this weekend. Sensible weather through the weekend will feature above climatological norms for temperatures. Forecast highs in the mid to upper 80s (low 90s in south-central Kansas) is around 10-15 degrees above normal whereas forecast lows through Saturday night will be in the low to mid 60s, a similar departure from normal as the highs. Precipitation chances are nearly zero through the weekend given the pattern.
Into next week, still expecting only low chances at precipitation despite more amplified troughing setting up to the west. Pacific tropical moisture is expected to struggle to advect northward, primarily staying across Arizona and New Mexico. NBM still holding low POPs (20-30%) Monday and into Tuesday. Temperatures will be much more seasonable, or even a few degrees below normal Monday and Tuesday, but expecting high temperatures to rebound back into the 80s as ridging tries to build back into the Plains into mid to late week next week. While there will be lingering troughs to the west, not anticipating any significant systems to emerge from that pattern at this time.
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.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1103 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025
VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through early Saturday. Light and variable winds through late afternoon are expected to become south-southeasterly 5 to 15kt generally after 02- 04Z as a stalled frontal boundary in southwest Kansas begins to lift back north overnight.
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.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None.
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DISCUSSION...Bennett AVIATION...JJohnson/Bennett
NWS DDC Office Area Forecast Discussion