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Inez, Kentucky Weather Forecast Discussion

235
FXUS63 KJKL 220912
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 512 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening. These storms should mainly affect the northwestern half of eastern Kentucky, with damaging winds as the primary threat.

- Multiple rounds of heavy rain are expected through the week. While this rain will help the drought, it could also lead to isolated flash flooding, especially on Wednesday.

- Another chance for strong thunderstorms exists on Thursday, but the forecast for late in the week remains uncertain. Please monitor for updates.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 420 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2025

Satellite imagery shows variable cloud cover across eastern Kentucky at 8z this morning along with some fog in the more sheltered river valleys. A few showers are present on radar west of I-75 and north of the Mountain Parkway, but most locations are dry. Temperatures range mainly in the 60s. The latest analysis shows surface high pressure ridging extending from the Canadian Maritimes southwestward along the Atlantic Seaboard. Meanwhile, low pressure is taking shape in the lee of the Northern Rockies, with a wavy frontal boundary extending eastward into the Great Lakes. In between the high and low, the pressure pattern (including over eastern Kentucky) consists of a weak pressure gradient infused with various subtle shortwave and mesoscale perturbations. Scanning aloft, 500 hPa ridging is departing off the Atlantic Coast ahead of a low-amplitude 500 hPa trough extending from Western Ontario southward along the Mississippi River Valley. Further upstream, a Pacific trough is crossing the northern Rockies.

The trough immediately to our west will gradually dampen and slowly shift eastward through the short term, but not before ejecting multiple pieces of vorticity energy across the Commonwealth, most notably later today and tonight. As that trough pulls away on Tuesday, the Pacific trough will dig deeply over the Plains in the early stages of forming a closed low and will begin impacting eastern Kentucky just beyond the end of the short term. In the meantime, the first of multiple disturbances associated with the Mississippi Valley trough will cross eastern Kentucky today. Partial sun is expected to lead to moderate destabilization (MUCAPE 1,000-2500 J/kg) by this afternoon while modest shear of 20 to 30 kts will be sufficient for line segment organization. The stronger forcing will pass over the northwestern half of the forecast area, favoring locations near Lake Cumberland and north of the Hal Rogers Parkway/KY-80 corridor for the greatest chance of organized severe weather. Strong to damaging winds would be the primary threat. Another disturbance moves through tonight, focusing much of the activity again over the northwestern half of the area. However, the threat of severe weather is minimal with the activity overnight. Additionally, PWATs surging to between 1.5 and 1.8 inches with a deep warm cloud layer will be supportive of heavy downpours. For now, this rain should largely be beneficial as the heaviest activity is likely to occur in those areas most affected by ongoing abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions. Locations favored to experience the strongest storms this afternoon and evening could receive 1 to 2.5 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts possible. Lesser totals are expected closer to the Virginia and Tennessee borders. Convection will likely continue on Tuesday as the first trough pulls away, but overall coverage and intensity should be less than today and tonight.

In terms of sensible weather, a transition to wet and unsettled conditions is expected for the new work week. A few showers this morning will yield to more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon and evening (50% chance of precipitation along the Virginia border up to 90% north of I-64). Some thunderstorms could be strong, with gusty winds and torrential downpours, especially north of a line from Pikeville to London. It will be slightly cooler than yesterday, with high temperatures mostly in the low to mid-80s under variable cloud cover. Tonight will remain mild, with lows in the low to mid-60s and a lingering threat of rainfall (70% to 90% chance). Partial sunshine follows for Tuesday with a continued threat of shower and thunderstorms (60% to 80% chance). Temperatures will cool further on Tuesday, with highs near 80F.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 508 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2025

The long-term forecast period begins Tuesday evening with a dampening 500 hPa trough over the Great Lakes, while potent Pacific energy carves a deep trough across the Central Plains. The dampening trough is forecast to form a weak closed low by Wednesday, which then intensifies near or over Lake Michigan as Pacific energy streams into it from the southwest. Substantial model spread exists regarding the interaction of these features. It is uncertain how much Pacific energy will feed into the Great Lakes system versus closing off into a separate upper low that could dive into the Gulf Coast states late in the week. Regardless of the eventual outcome, rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected to traverse the forecast area each day until the primary upper-level energy ejects and removes the seasonably humid airmass. The wettest days currently appear to be Wednesday and Thursday. Afterward, the upper-level system (or systems) should be positioned to allow drier air to return to eastern Kentucky. Widespread 5-day rainfall totals of 2 to 3.5 inches can be expected through Friday, though localized amounts of 4+ inches cannot be ruled out. Areas that have ongoing dry to moderate drought conditions are favored to receive some of the heaviest rainfall totals, so the rain should be beneficial for many. Temperatures will cool gradually through Friday, with highs returning to the 70s and nighttime lows falling into the 50s. Widening diurnal temperature ranges and a slow warming trend for daily highs are favored from Saturday onward as the drier air returns.

Previous discussion issued at 309 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2025...

A stronger upper disturbance rounds the base of the longwave trough Monday into Tuesday which becomes stretched from southeastern Canada southwest to the center of the country, with an upper low becoming established over the center of the country. Additionally, a seasonally strong westerly jet stream becomes established Tuesday from the Four Corners region east to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. This jet then becomes increasingly more southerly with time through Friday morning as a high-amplitude trough becomes established from the Great Lakes to the northern Gulf of America. By next Saturday, the GFS and ECMWF begin to diverge as to whether this trough closes off into an upper low over eastern Kentucky, or whether the associated trough becomes embedded within a highly amplified upper trough over the eastern U.S.

A very active weather pattern is expected Tuesday through Friday, with the potential for excessive rainfall each day (Marginal Risks Monday and Tuesday, Slight Risks Wednesday and Thursday), as well as one or more severe weather threats later Wednesday through Thursday, with the highest uncertainty involving how much instability is available within a strong warm advection pattern with strong mid- level winds. Interests in the eastern Kentucky region should remain weather aware and keep monitoring forecasts as this pattern evolves.

High temperatures will continue to trend downward each day as unsettled weather continues through the period, with low temperatures remaining elevated through at least Thursday night. There will be the potential for cooler low temperatures Friday night and beyond with the potential for cold advection depending on the evolution of the mid-level pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) ISSUED AT 147 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2025

Through the remainder of the night, generally VFR conditions are expected at the TAF sites under variably cloudy skies. Fog is likely in the typical prone valley locations through 13Z with MVFR to IFR reductions. There is also a low chance for a shower or even a stray thunderstorm, primarily toward and north of I-64 (a PROB30 group was included at SYM). Otherwise, additional showers and storms are anticipated during the day on Monday, most widespread during the afternoon and evening. Reductions to MVFR or lower are anticipated within any stronger convection while associated winds could gust to 30KT or stronger. Winds outside of showers and storms will be light and variable or southeast to south at less than 10KT through 14Z, before becoming more southwesterly at generally around 10KT or less through the day.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEERTSON LONG TERM...GEERTSON/CMC AVIATION...GEERTSON/JP

NWS JKL Office Area Forecast Discussion

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