Indian River, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

314
FXUS63 KAPX 271022
AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
622 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy fog again tonight...
- Mild and drier weather possible next week...
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 237 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Ridging once again surging into the Great Lakes region into the
weekend, as the pesky cutoff low finally makes its departure
following a cold frontal passage Friday afternoon. In the wake of
this boundary, we are contending with a stubborn plume of low level
moisture which has been producing some low stratus and fog,
primarily across northern lower Michigan, with most of eastern upper
being spared for the time being. A sharp shortwave over central
Canada will crest the ridge axis building into the region, which
will draw in a warm front to the region through the morning,
effectively scouring out fog and low cloud across northern lower,
but with prevailing SW flow, this plume will be sent across eastern
upper... so through the day today, anticipating sunshine to really
make its mark on northern lower as highs balloon into the 70s,
perhaps lower 80s in places. Those stubborn clouds in eastern upper
should stunt highs anywhere from 66 to 72.
Guidance is pessimistic on shower development across the northern
reaches of eastern upper in the afternoon considering a largely
stable boundary layer beneath a stout warm nose between 850mb and
700mb... thus preventing instability to materialize in the
afternoon, so will trend the forecast dry across the board.
Associated cold frontal boundary with the aforementioned shortwave
will make a passage late Saturday into Saturday night... and with
minimal moisture to play with, along with a lack of instability,
this front will basically be nothing more than a moisture-scouring
agent... knocking dewpoints down quite a bit to close out the
weekend, and setting the stage for potential fire weather concerns
as cooler air really fails to intrude in the wake of the front. Lows
tonight generally 40-45 in the interiors... 45 to 55 along the
coasts. Frost concerns seem minimal considering a lack of decoupling
amid a tightened pressure gradient.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 237 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Short Version: prolonged dry spell is in the cards for the
Northwoods for the long term period, with increasing concerns for
fire weather conditions and frost.
Details: Ridge axis will generally settle right overhead as a stout
Rex Blocking regime materializes... leaving northern Michigan under
strong influences of surface high pressure and very dry air. Initial
start to the period showcases anomalous warmth to conclude the
weekend and into next week... with highs spiking well into the 70s
and perhaps even the 80s Monday. As the surface high over northern
Ontario asserts itself, flow will then trend more easterly... and
very dry. While this will send temperatures to somewhat more
seasonable levels... highs in the lower 60s to lower 70s (still
above normal), we will have to see how strong surface flow is,
because in these setups, fire weather parameters can easily spike.
Considering the ample timber lying on forest floors from the
devastating March ice storm earlier this year, along with the
decaying of vegetation amid a drier period, fall fire weather
concerns could certainly spike in a pattern like this, constituted
by low RHs. In addition, this dry of an atmospheric profile may
permit seasonably chilly overnight lows in the 30s (frost potential)
across the interior, which could lead to additional vegetation
decay. So... while the weather will likely be nice, there may be
other factors to consider for those that have late-season camping
plans in the Northwoods.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 618 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Areas of FG/BR are leading to IFR/LIFR conditions at multiple
terminals this morning. A BKN-OVC stratus deck around 4 - 5 kft
also exists this morning. FG/BR and cigs should lift and
scatter this morning, returning VFR conditions by 15Z for most
terminals. Winds will become SW/W after 10Z with occasional
gusts up to 15 to 20kts. A weak and dry FROPA will move through
around 00Z, turning winds N/NE for the remainder of the period.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAD
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...ELD

NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion