Huron, California Weather Forecast Discussion

309
FXUS66 KHNX 260900
AFDHNX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
200 AM PDT Fri Sep 26 2025
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.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Thunderstorm chances retreat somewhat today, with the Sierra
Nevada seeing a 10 to 15 percent probability for development this
afternoon. Chances will then increase to 15 to 25 percent
through the weekend and into Monday along the crest and into
the Kern mountains.
2. A Marginal Risk (at least 5%) of excessive rainfall returns
this Saturday along the Sierra Nevada mountains and into the
Foothills and much of eastern Kern County.
3. A cooling of temperatures is expected to begin this Sunday
and continue through at least Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
The cutoff low pressure system that has brought thunderstorms to
the region over the past few days will continue to do so through
the weekend. Chances for thunderstorms slightly decrease this
afternoon to 10 to 15 percent, concentrated to the Sierra Nevada
crest south of Madera County into the Kern Mountains and Desert.
The weekend will see the thunderstorm chances increase again,
into the 15 to 25 percent range. And as they do this, the
chances will also move slightly north each day as the low
pressure system moves, with Saturday seeing the thunderstorm
probabilities along the Sierra Nevada south of Mariposa County
through the Kern Mountains. Sunday will see these probabilities
decrease in Kern County and increase north of Mariposa County.
This pattern continues into Monday, though by Tuesday, the
chances are expected to decrease to the 10 to 15 range.
There is once again a Marginal Risk (at least 5%) of excessive
rainfall expected on Saturday for the Sierra Nevada and much of
the eastern half of Kern County, correlating with the
thunderstorm chances in that area on Saturday.
Due to the positioning of the low pressure system aloft, a small
and tilting ridge is expected to develop over Northern
California this afternoon, which will lead to a brief rise in
afternoon highs for the region. This mini ridge will not last
very long, with an incoming trough from the Pacific interacting
with the cutoff low over Southern California, causing that ridge
to weaken completely and the cutoff low to taken over again by
Sunday. This will result in more cooling for the region, and is
expected to last through at least Tuesday as the larger Pacific
trough comes onshore. This trough may also produce more of a
stratiform rainfall for the northern Counties of our CWA on
Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z Update:
A 10-15 percent chance of thunderstorms from 18Z Friday through
03Z Saturday will exist across the Sierra Nevada and into the
Kern County mountains and Desert. Otherwise, VFR conditions
expected for the next 24 hours.
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.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.
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.CERTAINTY...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.
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.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
EW
weather.gov/hanford

NWS HNX Office Area Forecast Discussion