Howard, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

637
FXUS65 KPUB 302315
AFDPUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
515 PM MDT Tue Sep 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated thunderstorms possible this evening with gusty
  outflow winds and brief rainfall the primary risks.
- Dry weather with above seasonal temperatures through the end
  of the work week.
- Increasing coverage of showers and storms Friday night, with
  cooler and more unsettled weather on tap for the weekend into
  early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 213 PM MDT Tue Sep 30 2025
A weak wave moving through western CO has triggered some very
isolated showers across the mountains as of 2 PM. Moisture is
more limited today, but as this wave moves eastward in west
southwest flow aloft, a few showers and isolated thunderstorms
will be possible across mainly western and northern portions of
southern CO. NAMNest continues to hit at some high based
convection possible along the lee trough axis across far eastern
CO in area of developing CU field. Have introduced a couple
hours of isolated pops for this area, but activity should move
east and dissipate quickly this evening. Otherwise, it will be
another cool night across southern CO.
Dry weather spreads in for Wednesday with temperatures warming a
couple degrees from yesterday given rising heights aloft under
modest westerly flow. Not a whole lot of change expected vs
today with highs topping out into the 80s across the southeast
plains 60s and 70s for the valleys and 40s and 50s for the
higher mountains. -KT
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 314 AM MDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Wednesday night-Friday...Modest west to southwest flow aloft
across the region on Thursday, becomes more southwest and
increases through the day Friday, as upper level ridging across
the Rockies moves east ahead of an upper trough digging across
the Great Basin. Again, this pattern keeps dry conditions and
above seasonal temperatures (some 5 to 15 degrees above normal)
in place through the end of the work week, with highs in the 80s
to lower 90s expected across the plains, warmest on Friday, and
mainly in the 60s and 70s across the higher terrain. Overnight
lows look to remain at and above seasonal levels as well, with
no widespread freezing temperatures in the offing through this
period.
Friday Night-Sunday night...Latest model data slows the progression
of said Great Basin upper trough, though continue to differ on its
amplitude as it lifts out across the Rockies through Saturday night.
Increasing southwest flow aloft will bring increasing coverage of
showers and a few possible embedded thunderstorms, along and west
of the ContDvd Friday night and Saturday. Chances of precipitation
spread east through the day Saturday into Saturday night. Current
NBM data keeps the best chances of precipitation along the ContDvd and
generally north of the Highway 50 Corridor. Snow levels remain relatively
high (at or above 10,000 feet) with some light accumulations expected
across the higher peaks, though snow levels remain subject to change
if the systems takes a more southern path. The passing system sends
a front across the region on Saturday, with a secondary front pushing
across the area Saturday night into Sunday morning, leading to cooler
temperatures areawide by Sunday. How much cooler remains the question,
with NBM data and other numerical guidance indicating uncertainty and
larger spreads in temperatures for the weekend. At any rate, NBM supports
highs in the 70s and 80s early on Saturday across the plains, and in the
50s and 60s across the higher terrain, with temperatures likely cooling
through the afternoon. Sunday`s temperatures cool even more, with highs
mainly 60s and 70s across the plains, and mainly in the 50s and 60s
across the higher terrain. Will need to watch for the potential for
sub-freezing temperatures late Sunday night into early Monday morning,
mainly across the San Luis Valley.
Monday-Tuesday...Latest model data continue to differ on the timing
and location of secondary energy digging back across the Great Basin,
as well as the amount of available moisture across the region into
the beginning of next week. With that said, NBM data keeps temperatures
at to slightly seasonal levels, along with chances of precipitation
into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 513 PM MDT Tue Sep 30 2025
VFR conditions anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf
sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. There may be a very brief period of
some convective showers affecting both the KCOS and KALS taf
sites at the beginning of the fcst period. Brief periods of
gusty winds may accompany the showers. Otherwise expect diurnal
wind flow during the next 24 hours.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HODANISH

NWS PUB Office Area Forecast Discussion