Hornell, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

685
FXUS61 KBGM 190640
AFDBGM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
240 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A dry cold front will move through overnight resulting in
cooler weather through Saturday. Temperatures then trend warmer
into early next week before a pattern shift brings changes of
rain back to the region mid week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A front is moving through early this morning and with dry air
in place, it is only really increasing the cloud cover and winds
by a little bit. What this front does do is advect even drier
air into the region which is quite evident on Water vapor
imagery. Dew points will likely mix down low today, into the
mid to upper 40s and potentially some upper 30s north of I-90.
Strong surface high pressure builds in with winds becoming calm
this evening and clear skies will lead to perfect conditions for
radiational cooling. Areas with dew points in the 40s will see
fog develop and help slow down the cooling process but areas
that have dew points in the 30s this afternoon have a good
chance at seeing frost. With high confidence of widespread frost
in northern Oneida, an advisory has been issued for tonight.
This may have to be expanded today depending on how low the dew
points can mix to. The strong high pressure remains in place
Saturday with seasonal high temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Saturday night will have similar conditions as Friday night but
the center of the surface high will have moved east with weak
return flow helping keep the overnight lows a little warmer.
Northern Oneida once again has the best chance at seeing lows
back down into the mid to low 30s so additional headlines may be
required. Sunday will be a few degrees warmer than Saturday
with better low level moisture advecting in slowly. Sunday night
still will have a small frost risk but mainly confined to the
north once again.
The pattern we have been stuck in for over a week finally
begins to break down Monday as a shortwave moves in from the
west bringing a weak front. With the surface high still not far
to the west and overall weak return flow on the west side of the
high, this front will initially be moisture starved Monday so
chances of precipitation were lowered from the NBM.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The long term has continued to trend wetter as the Monday
shortwave is slow to move in while remaining fairly amplified.
This will allow better moisture to advect into the northeast
Tuesday into Wednesday with potential for a few vorticity waves
to move through. All the deterministic models have trended
towards a more robust chance of widespread wetting rains Tuesday
into Wendesday but this will need to be taken with a grain of
salt. The origin of the 500 mb vortmax and weak surface low is
from an MCS that develops in the plains. It is getting late in
the year for large MCS`s and the predictability of them is poor
this far out but still raised chances of rain Tuesday into
Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected at all terminals early Friday
morning. Between 09-10Z, ceilings are expected to lower behind
a cold front crossing the area from northwest to southeast,
leading mostly MVFR conditions around BGM and ITH, with
potential for IFR at ELM. Northwest winds will start to
increase later in the morning and persist through the afternoon
with gusts around knots and possibly a few higher gusts during
the mid to late afternoon.
Outlook...
Friday night through Monday...VFR, except typical valley fog
likely each late night/early morning for at least KELM.
Tuesday...Isolated to scattered showers with occasional
restrictions possible.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Saturday for NYZ009.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJG/BTL
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG/BTL
AVIATION...KL

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion