Hooper, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

210
FXUS65 KPUB 281127
AFDPUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
527 AM MDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Today will bring the wettest day of the next several for much
  of the area, with scattered to numerous showers and
  thunderstorms and slightly warmer than normal temperatures.
- Showers and thunderstorms to continue through Monday, mainly across
  the higher terrain, then warmer and drier through the rest of
  the work week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Currently..
A few lingering and very light showers are still showing up on radar
and area observations as of 2 AM, mainly across our far eastern
plains and the San Luis Valley. No lightning has been in this
activity since yesterday evening, though mountain showers are likely
to begin to pick up in intensity through the early morning hours.
Cloud cover is present over much of the forecast area, mainly in the
middle and upper-levels. Temperatures are in the 50s and low 60s on
both our plains and over our mountain valleys. Dewpoints are ranging
from upper 50s on our far eastern plains, to mid 40s over the I-25
corridor and mountain valleys, to 30s for Leadville. Winds are
mainly southerly.
Today and Tonight..
The upper low weakens throughout the day today, with the open wave
pushing into the Four Corners region by later tonight. Though this
is still not much movement for 24 hours, the slight trend westward
will help to increase our coverage of showers and thunderstorms for
today, especially for our southern mountains and southern plains.
Light showers look to linger and fester in some areas off and on
throughout the morning hours, picking up in coverage and intensity
from south to north after Noon. Widespread coverage can be expected
over the southern San Luis Valley and our southern mountains today,
with mainly scattered coverage likely for the rest of the high
country. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will also continue to be
possible for portions of the plains, especially along I-25 and south
of Highway 50. The main risks with storms today will be heavy rain,
frequent lightning, and wind gusts to 50 mph. Temperatures are
likely to be very similar to yesterday over the plains, with near
normal highs in the 80s for most, and highs in the 70s over the
Pikes Peak region and the southern I-25 corridor. Our mountain
valleys and the high country will be around 5 to 7 degrees cooler
today than we they were yesterday, with highs topping out in the mid
to upper 60s over the San Luis Valley and the Upper Arkansas River
Valley. Model guidance suggests that some convection may linger over
our southern mountains into the evening hours, with most locations
dry by around midnight or so at the latest. Overnight lows will be a
few degrees warmer than normal, with much of our plains remaining in
the 50s tonight.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Monday...Upper low continues to weaken and eject to the northeast
across Colorado on Monday, though latest model solutions are roughly
6 hrs or so slower. That means that there will be a very good chance
for showers and thunderstorm activity across the higher terrain
through the day, with a better chance for some of the activity to
spill across the I-25 Corridor as well as the Palmer Divide and the
Raton Mesa. Activity will linger into the evening, then come to an
end by midnight. Monday is expected to be the coolest day of the
extended period though conditions should still be very comfortable,
with highs in the 60s for the high valleys, and lower 70s to lower
80s for the plains.
Tuesday...A quick-moving upper wave glances by to the north-
northwest by the afternoon, initiating some isolated convection
along the Continental Divide. The increased west to southwest flow
aloft across the state will help boost temps into the mid 60s to
lower 70s for the high valleys, and mid 70s to mid 80s for the
plains.
Wednesday and Thursday...Upper ridging develops across the region
for both days, producing dry conditions and gradually warming temps.
Forecast grids call for nil pops both days, while afternoon high
temps climb into the 70s for the high valleys, and upper 70s to
upper 80s for the plains.
Friday and Saturday...Long range models agree on bringing a Pacific
system across the Great Basin on Friday, and the Rocky Mt region on
Saturday, though models disagree on strength. Current forecast grids
indicate that Fri will be the warmest day of the extended period as
warming southwest flow strengthens across the state. Isolated
convection moves into the higher terrain during the evening, then
tries to push east through Sat as the upper feature pushes to the
east. At this time, just 5 degrees of cooling can be expected from
Fri into Sat, but stay tuned as models get a better handle on what
will happen this upcoming weekend. Moore
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 527 AM MDT Sun Sep 28 2025
For KCOS..VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds
will be mainly southerly this afternoon, with gusts to 22kt. Mid and
upper-level cloud decks are expected to persist throughout the TAF
period. Showers and thunderstorms south of station may bring gusty
outflow winds later this afternoon and into the evening hours.
For KPUB..Mainly VFR conditions are expected, though brief
reductions to MVFR will be possible if any heavier showers and
thunderstorms manage to move overhead later this afternoon. The most
likely time for this scenario will be between 22Z and 02Z, though
showers and storms in the vicinity will be possible for a few
hours on either side of that timeframe. Gusty outflow winds to
35kt will also be possible, even if storms do not manage to push
over station.
For KALS..Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period,
though there will be thunderstorm chances this afternoon. Heavier
storms may produce briefly MVFR conditions today, along with 35kt
outflow winds.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...EHR

NWS PUB Office Area Forecast Discussion