Honeoye Falls, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

169
FXUS61 KBUF 291421
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1021 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will guarantee fair dry weather through the entire
week and into the coming weekend. A dry cold front will bring a more
seasonable airmass around midweek with some risk for nocturnal frost
at the higher elevations. Temperatures then climb back above normal
later in the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Sfc high pressure will remain anchored over the eastern Great Lakes
today ahead of an amplifying mid-level ridge over the CONUS`
midsection and ON/QC. A stronger secondary 1032mb sfc high will then
begin to build southeast from northern Ontario overnight tonight.
This will ensure the warm, dry pattern continues right through the
period with just some added high clouds later today. Typical
nocturnal valley fog can also be expected early this AM and again
tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A moisture starved cold front drops through the region Tuesday,
with a cooler airmass advecting into the region. Strong sfc
ridge builds southeast towards the Lower Lakes and New England
Wednesday. Expect dry weather and seasonable conditions with
highs found in the 60s for most locales.
Clear skies and good radiational cooling will take place Wednesday
night, with lows in the 30s to low 40s. Some frost will be possible
in the wind sheltered areas well inland from the lakes overnight.
Sfc ridge will continue to settle south and southeast towards the
Mid-Alantic Thursday, which will provide dry weather through the
remainder of the work week. As it settles south of the region, it
will promote a gradual warming trend with temperatures climbing back
above normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Sfc high pressure will maintain fair dry weather over the weekend
and into next week. Highs temps will once again climb well above
normal.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR will prevail through tonight in most areas and at the TAF sites
with light winds as strong sfc high pressure remains anchored over
the region.
Fog development expected after 00z this evening, though an
approaching cold front from the north could limit the fog potential
across the North Country with increasing wind flow late in the
night.
Outlook...
Tuesday through Friday...Mainly VFR. Valley fog and local IFR
possible each late night through the morning hours.
&&
.MARINE...
Surface high pressure will remain directly over the eastern Great
Lakes through the day today bringing light, variable winds and quiet
weather.
A stronger secondary area of high pressure will begin to build
southeastward from northern Ontario tonight, then slowly drift
across the Northeast through much of the week. Northeast winds will
increase starting Tuesday as the gradient between this high and a
complex tropical weather environment off the Southeast coast. This
will likely cause SCA conditions to develop on at least a portion of
Lake Ontario, though the chop will notably increase along the
southern portions of both lakes.
A dry cold front moving across the lakes Tuesday night will cause
northeast winds to strengthen with more solid and widespread SCA
criteria expected. Winds and wave action will relax some during the
day Wednesday though remain elevated through Wednesday night.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PP/TMA
NEAR TERM...PP
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...PP/TMA
MARINE...PP

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion