Holly Ridge, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

508
FXUS62 KMHX 021847
AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
247 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Imelda continues to move away from the Eastern Seaboard but
will continue to bring coastal impacts to the area through
Friday. High pressure will build in from the north through this
weekend continuing to bring NE to E`rly flow to Eastern North
Carolina with seasonable temperatures and generally dry
conditions.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Thurs...
Key Messages:
- Gusty NE winds continue - Coastal impacts continue (see coastal
flood section)
Although Imelda continues to track northeastwards further out
to sea and away from the Eastern Seaboard, this systems impact
to ENC will continue to be felt through tonight. Breezy NE`rly
winds will continue through tonight given the pressure gradient
remains pinched between the departing Imelda and strong high
pressure ridging building in from the north. In general have
seen gusts up around 25-35 mph along the OBX and coast with
gusts around 15-25 mph inland. Highs got into low to mid 70s
across ENC today.
As we get into tonight, upper and surface ridging continue to
extend into ENC keeping things dry outside of a few weak coastal
showers well offshore as a coastal trough begins to develop.
Steady NE`rly winds at 5-10 mph inland with strong winds along
the coast and OBX will keep us well mixed enough to preclude a
fog threat. Temps tonight get into the mid to upper 50s inland
and low to mid 60s along the coast and OBX.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
As of 230 PM Thurs...
Key Messages:
- Coastal impacts quickly wind down (see coastal flood section for
more info) and winds quickly ease today
Strong surface high pressure continues to build in to the area
but with Imelda now very far away form the Eastern Seaboard
winds should relax quite a bit through the day today with NE`rly
winds lowering down to 10-15 mph with gusts up around 20 mph
primarily along the OBX. Otherwise expecting primarily dry
weather across ENC with just an isolated chance at a shower or
two along the immediate coast as a coastal trough sets up. Highs
get into the 70s across ENC.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 130 AM Thursday...Sfc high pressure will be centered off the
Mid-Atlantic coast while upper ridging builds across the Eastern
CONUS into early next week. NE winds continue Friday night into
Saturday, then veer to Ely as the sfc high migrates off the
Mid-Atlantic coast. Generally dry weather is expected for most
area although a coastal trough offshore may produce a few
showers across the coastal waters. Some guidance continues to
show some of these showers working their way toward the coast.
Temps will be a few degrees below normal through the week with
highs in the mid to upper 70s. Temps warm to near normal over
the weekend and early next week with highs around 80/lower 80s.
By the middle of next week, the upper ridge breaks down as a strong
northern stream trough digs into the Northern Plains and Midwest
with sfc high pressure migrating farther offshore and sfc cold front
approaching from the NW bringing increasing chances of showers
across the region.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 1PM Thurs...Expecting predominantly VFR conditions across
ENC through Friday. Breezy conditions will remain in place
today with gusts up around 15-20 kts this afternoon. While winds
will be much weaker tonight, we will remain well mixed and
therefore limit any potential fog threat. Lower clouds around
4-5 kft expected this afternoon. This cloud deck is forecast to
change little through tonight through a few periods of sub-VFR
conditions will be possible across the OBX tonight through
Friday morning though chances are low (205.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ196-203>205.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT Friday for NCZ205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ131-
     230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ137.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Saturday night for
     AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Monday night for
     AMZ152-154-156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/RCF
MARINE...SK/RCF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX

NWS MHX Office Area Forecast Discussion