Holly Grove, Arkansas Weather Forecast Discussion

738
FXUS64 KLZK 140508
AFDLZK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1208 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 206 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
-A dominant upper lvl ridge will position over Arkansas through
 middle to late next week.
-An upper level trough will approach the Central Plains by middle
 to late next week and bring a chance for precipitation to
 Arkansas; however, model agreement is lacking and the confidence
 of this event occurring remains low.
-A low-end chance of a few isolated showers will be possible
 across parts of northern and central Arkansas, specifically
 north-central Arkansas. Total rainfall in any shower that does
 develop will be low and not amount to much.
-Expect the worsening of drought conditions over the next week as hot
 and dry conditions have a high confidence of persisting over the
 next seven days despite the outside lower end chances for
 precipitation during the middle to late next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
SATURDAY (TODAY) THROUGH TUESDAY:
A region of upper lvl ridging will build eastward over the duration
of the weekend transitioning from being centralized over the
Southern Plains region of the CONUS to becoming centralized over
Arkansas and the Mid-South region of the CONUS. In response, hot and
dry conditions will persist over the majority of the state. A very
low chance of a few showers developing across portions of northern
and central Arkansas does exist this afternoon into this evening;
however, this activity will remain isolated and if you do happen to
find yourself under one of these showers, it will only be enough
rainfall to maybe knock the dust down.
Expect temperatures to remain 5 to 10 degrees above average compared
to normals for mid-September over this period.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
An upper lvl trof will dig over the Central Plains region of the
CONUS on Wednesday and the ridge will become elongated across the
Southern region of the CONUS and the center of this ridge will
retrograde back over northern Mexico and far southern Texas. Model
guidance begins to diverge at this point: The GFS and ECMWF both
show the potential of this aforementioned upper lvl trof to approach
the region, but both models are struggling with any cohesion with
regards to intensity and placement of this upper lvl trof. The GFS
solution portrays an upper lvl trof that will approach the region
and meander in close proximity of Arkansas beginning late Wednesday
and lasting into Thursday and Friday with isolated rain and
thunderstorm chances. The ECMWF solution portrays a much drier
solution as the upper lvl ridge remains more amplified and the trof
axis remains well north and west of Arkansas; in hindsight, this
solution would keep Arkansas dry overall.
Simply put, the timing and likelihood of PoPs in the form of showers
and storms does look to be a low confidence event going into the
middle and late timeframe of next week. I have went closer to the
GFS solution, but have kept PoPs respectable at a 20%-40% range
across portions of Arkansas from late Wednesday through Friday.
Future forecast packages and the influx of more model data should
assist in refining this lack of cohesion and low confidence over the
next 24 to 48 hours. It is a positive to see PoP chances in the
forecast, but I don`t see this as an event to hang your hat on just
yet given the lack of agreement between models.
Expect temperatures to remain 5 to 8 degrees above average compared
to normals for mid-September over this period.
The upper lvl ridge will continue to contribute to a dry and hot
pattern overall which will continue to worsen drought conditions
across the state. Anticipate grassfire and wildfire danger to
continue to increase.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Expect VFR conditions for all terminals across the majority of the
forecast period from early Sunday morning through early Monday
morning. The exception will be patchy, dense fog which may impact
the western terminals early Sunday morning which may drop VSBY to as
low as IFR flight category, which has been represented by TEMPO
groups. All sites will return to VFR flight category by later Sunday
morning. VCSH are anticipated on Sunday afternoon into early
Sunday afternoon for a low chance of isolated showers across much
of the state.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     96  68  95  67 /  20  10  10  10
Camden AR         94  66  94  67 /  20   0   0   0
Harrison AR       92  68  92  67 /  20  10  10   0
Hot Springs AR    94  69  95  68 /  20   0  10   0
Little Rock   AR  93  70  94  70 /  20   0   0   0
Monticello AR     96  69  97  70 /  20   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      94  68  94  67 /  20   0  10   0
Mountain Home AR  96  67  95  67 /  20  10  10  10
Newport AR        95  70  96  69 /  20  20  10  10
Pine Bluff AR     95  69  95  69 /  20   0   0   0
Russellville AR   96  70  96  70 /  20   0  10   0
Searcy AR         95  69  96  67 /  20  10  10  10
Stuttgart AR      94  70  95  70 /  20   0  10   0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...74

NWS LZK Office Area Forecast Discussion